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Bitcoin Hodl Patterns Indicate Cycle Shift to Bull Market

Glassnode, a blockchain data analytics platform, indicated that there has been a “abrupt rotation of capital beginning as FTX plummeted.” It went on to say that coins had been shifted from long-term holders to a new group of buyers.

This shift in hodl patterns has been observed in prior cycles and could be a “inflection point, indicating a changing of the tides,” according to the study. Bitcoin prices have recovered from the CFTC’s targeting of Binance and this week’s bogus Interpol report. Markets, though, are still consolidating for the time being.

Glassnode developed a RHODL statistic on April 3 that compares the wealth owned by single-cycle Long-Term Holders (6m-2y) to the wealth held by the youngest Short-Term Holders (1d-3m). According to the explanation, the ratio seeks to assess the rotation between the extreme hodling and distribution locations.

The current structure, which is in fast fall, implies that BTC is shifting from long-term holders to short-term holders, a tendency that has increased since FTX’s death. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio was also examined. This is used to calculate an unrealized profit multiple kept in the coin supply.

According to Glassnode, the indicator is currently at 1.4, “which corresponds more closely with a recovery phase.” An Accumulation Trend Score also indicates that markets are in a period of transitional recovery. The net flow of coins to and from wallets with little to no spending history was measured using an Illiquid Supply Net Position Change metric. This is increasing by 36,600 BTC per month, indicating increased trust in the asset.

“This is consistent with our past observations regarding HODLers, and adds to the argument of continued market sentiment, despite the backdrop of regulatory pressure.” At the time of writing, bitcoin prices had risen 2.7% on the day to $28,629 USD. They have recovered to a weekly high, despite the negative news and regulatory pressure.

Furthermore, the Bitcoin fear and greed index has shifted to ‘greed,’ implying that a correction is imminent. BTC is up 28% in the last month, but it is still down 58.5% from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

 

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