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How Will BTC Price React to CME Bitcoin Futures Expiration?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will close and settle an estimated 8,171 Bitcoin futures contracts on March 31. The most recent open price on March 30 was $28,355, which is slightly higher than Bitcoin’s current price of $28,182. As of March 29, the CME reported a volume of 16,139 contracts and an open interest (OI) of 13,971. The total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled is referred to as OI.

Deribit reports that the total open interest (OI) for all BTC futures contracts is nearly $300 million. This is significantly lower than previous peaks of over $1 billion, implying that the impact on BTC spot prices will be minimal. Furthermore, TradingView shows a buy signal for CME Bitcoin futures, indicating that derivatives markets remain bullish.

Analysts noticed a close above the medium band on the Gaussian channel on the five-day CME Futures chart. According to one analyst, this is bullish and could lead to a next level of around $33,000. Another observer observed that the CME Bitcoin futures gap had closed and a new one was forming. The difference in BTC and CME contract prices that forms over the weekend when the exchange closes is referred to as the gap. Furthermore, as the market corrects back into the gap, these CME gaps tend to be “filled.”

The CME Group announced the trading of Event Contracts on Bitcoin futures earlier this month. The cash-settled, daily expiring contracts will complement CME Group’s existing suite of ten event contracts, according to Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equity.

Bitcoin is currently in a bullish trend in the short term. As a result, the expiration of the futures contract is unlikely to have a significant impact on markets. On a daily basis, Bitcoin has dropped 1.4% to $28,185. However, it is still up 12% in the last two weeks. The asset has recovered all of its losses from the CFTC Binance lawsuit earlier this week. It fell to $26,770 on March 28 but quickly recovered. Major resistance remains at $30,000, so this is the target for further gains.

 

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