Bitcoin Struggles Below $80,000 as On-Chain Resistance and Fed Uncertainty Weigh on Market

• Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $80,000 level, with on-chain data pointing to a major resistance zone between $78,000 and $80,000.
• Short-term holders have been selling into the recent rebound, realizing profits as BTC approached key breakeven levels.
• CoinCodex’s algorithmic Bitcoin price prediction remains more bullish, forecasting a move above $80,000 in May and above $90,000 by late July.

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has stalled below the $80,000 mark, raising questions about whether the move was a genuine recovery or simply a bear-market rally into resistance.

According to Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain newsletter, Bitcoin is facing a dense resistance zone between the True Market Mean near $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis around $79,000. This area has become an important battleground because many recent buyers are near breakeven at these levels, creating an incentive to sell as the price approaches the zone.

Glassnode described the rejection as a typical bear-market pattern, where price rallies toward the cost basis of the most price-sensitive investor cohort before selling pressure overwhelms demand. The firm said the rejection has shifted the mid-term bias toward further downside pressure.

On-chain data shows heavy resistance near $80,000

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data suggests that investors hold roughly 475,301 BTC at an average cost between $77,800 and $80,880. This reinforces the importance of the $78,000 to $80,000 range as a major overhead supply zone.

Short-term holders have also been actively distributing into strength. As Bitcoin approached $80,000, the 24-hour simple moving average of short-term holder realized profit showed recent buyers taking profits at a rate of about $4 million per hour.

The metric climbed as high as $7.2 million per hour on April 15, roughly four times the base level established since mid-April. According to the Glassnode report, this confirmed that short-term holders used the rally as an opportunity to reduce exposure.

Market participants are now watching whether Bitcoin can flip $80,000 from resistance into support. A successful breakout could open the door to a move toward $84,000, while another rejection would likely strengthen the bearish near-term setup.

Fed decision adds to Bitcoin’s macro headwinds

Bitcoin entered the latest Federal Reserve decision already trading below the key on-chain supply zone, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference did little to improve sentiment.

The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.5% to 3.75% and linked elevated inflation to higher global energy prices, citing tensions in the Middle East as a source of uncertainty for the economic outlook. Powell also estimated that total PCE inflation ran at 3.5% through March, while core PCE stood at 3.2%.

The meeting also highlighted a divided committee. Eight officials voted to hold rates steady, one dissenter favored a cut, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan objected to retaining any easing bias in the policy statement.

For Bitcoin, this complicates the outlook. A clearer dovish pivot from the Fed would likely be supportive for risk assets, but persistent inflation concerns and internal disagreement at the central bank make near-term rate cut expectations harder to price in.

With spot Bitcoin trading near $75,900, BTC remains below the $78,000 to $80,000 resistance band and close to the $76,000 level, which Glassnode has flagged as a downside short-gamma zone.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see renewed outflows

Adding to the pressure, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive days of outflows totaling $390 million.

This marks the longest outflow streak since March 20, when another three-day stretch of withdrawals coincided with an 11.5% BTC price drop after Bitcoin was rejected near $76,000.

ETF flows remain an important market signal because they reflect institutional demand for spot Bitcoin exposure. Sustained outflows could make it more difficult for BTC to absorb selling from short-term holders and break through the current resistance zone.

CoinCodex Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish

Despite the cautious on-chain and macro setup, the algorithmic Bitcoin price prediction from CoinCheckup is forecasting a more optimistic short- and medium-term outlook.

According to CoinCodex, Bitcoin is expected to move back above $80,000 in May and surpass the $90,000 level by late July. The forecast implies a 19.6% increase for BTC over the next three months.

However, the prediction is based on Bitcoin’s historical price data and current market conditions. It does not account for external events such as regulatory developments, geopolitical tensions, news-driven volatility, or unexpected changes in monetary policy.

The bottom line

Bitcoin remains in a difficult technical position after failing to reclaim the $80,000 level. On-chain data shows that recent buyers are selling into rallies near their cost basis, while ETF outflows and a less supportive macro backdrop are adding further pressure.

For now, the $78,000 to $80,000 range remains the key resistance zone to watch. A decisive move above that area could improve market sentiment and support a push toward $84,000. Until then, Bitcoin’s rebound remains vulnerable to further downside, even as CoinCodex’s algorithmic forecast points to a stronger recovery over the coming months.