Analyst Warns Zcash (ZEC) Could Drop Sharply if $360 Support Breaks

A crypto market analyst has warned that Zcash (ZEC) could face a significant price decline if it falls below the $360 support level, based on key on-chain metrics that have historically signaled bearish shifts.

On-Chain Indicators Raise Caution

Joao Wedson, founder of the crypto analysis firm Alphractal, highlighted the behavior of Zcash’s MVRV Z-score — a metric that helps determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold relative to its realized value. According to Wedson, the Z-score rose after approaching the zero line, a pattern that often precedes volatility.

This development followed a period where ZEC tested its Realized Price, the average purchase price across all investors. That level acted as a strong support line, triggering a rebound of over 90%. However, Wedson cautioned that this recovery may be fragile.

The $360 Threshold and Bearish Scenarios

Wedson explained that the $360 price point now serves as a critical threshold. If ZEC slips below this mark, he believes a renewed decline is highly probable. In that event, attention would shift to a lower range between $48 and $170.

He identified the $48 level, which corresponds to the previous market cycle’s low, as the most extreme bearish outcome. While not his base case, Wedson noted that such a drop would represent a worst-case scenario for the privacy-focused cryptocurrency.

What This Means for ZEC Investors

For holders and traders, the $360 level now acts as a key line in the sand. The analyst’s comments underscore the importance of monitoring on-chain data alongside price action, especially in a market where sentiment can shift rapidly. While the recent 90% rebound demonstrated strong buying interest at the realized price, the warning suggests that momentum could reverse if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Zcash, known for its privacy features, has seen fluctuating interest from investors and developers alike. The token’s price action remains sensitive to both technical levels and the evolving regulatory landscape for privacy coins.

Conclusion

Wedson’s analysis provides a data-driven perspective on ZEC’s current market position. The $360 level represents a make-or-break point for the token’s short-term trajectory. A break below could open the door to significantly lower prices, while holding that level may offer a foundation for renewed upside. Investors are advised to track on-chain metrics and price confirmation before making trading decisions.

FAQs

Q1: What is the MVRV Z-score and why does it matter for ZEC?
The MVRV Z-score compares an asset’s market value to its realized value. It helps identify whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. For ZEC, a rise after approaching zero suggests potential volatility and possible price shifts.

Q2: What is the realized price for Zcash?
The realized price is the average price at which all current ZEC holders acquired their tokens. It acts as a psychological and technical support level because investors are less likely to sell below their average purchase price.

Q3: Could ZEC really fall to $48?
According to analyst Joao Wedson, the $48 level represents the most extreme bearish scenario, aligning with the previous cycle’s low. It is not a prediction but a worst-case technical target if the $360 support breaks and selling pressure intensifies.