New on-chain data from K33 Research suggests Bitcoin may be entering a bear market bottom, with 79% of the circulating supply now held by long-term investors and selling pressure from older wallets dropping significantly. However, the broader market remains cautious as other firms warn that additional downside could still be ahead.
On-Chain Signals Point to Capitulation Exhaustion
According to a report covered by The Block, K33 Research identified several key metrics that have historically aligned with market bottoms. The most prominent signal is that 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in over 155 days, indicating that long-term holders are refusing to sell at current prices. Meanwhile, dormant supply — coins held for more than two years — has seen markedly lower sell-offs during recent price surges compared to previous bear market cycles.
K33 noted that in past downturns, price rallies typically triggered significant distribution from older wallets. This time, that pattern has been far weaker, suggesting that the remaining sell-side pressure is being absorbed by waiting demand. The firm also observed that 50% of the total circulating supply is currently at a loss, a level that has often coincided with prior market bottoms. Additional signals include slowing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and declining overall trading volume, which together paint a picture of a market that may be nearing exhaustion.
Caution Persists Among Other Market Participants
Despite the encouraging on-chain data, not all analysts are convinced. The Block noted that firms such as Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have maintained a more cautious outlook. These entities point to weak institutional demand and slowing stablecoin growth as factors that could still drive prices lower. Stablecoin inflows, often seen as dry powder for buying, have not accelerated in a way that typically precedes a sustained rally.
The market is also facing external macro pressures. Traders are closely watching the ongoing peace agreement process between the United States and Iran, which could shift risk sentiment globally. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for 6:00 p.m. UTC on June 17, will be the first chaired by the new Fed chairman. Interest rate decisions and forward guidance from that meeting are expected to influence Bitcoin and broader crypto markets in the near term.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors
The divergence between on-chain signals and macro uncertainty creates a complex picture for Bitcoin holders. K33’s data suggests that the worst of the sell-side pressure may have passed, with long-term holders acting as a stabilizing force. However, the cautious stance from other trading desks highlights that bottoms are rarely called with certainty in real time. For investors, the key takeaway is that while the foundation for a recovery may be forming, the market remains sensitive to external shocks and policy shifts.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are flashing some of the strongest bottom signals seen in this cycle, according to K33 Research. Yet the market’s path forward remains uncertain, with macro events and mixed institutional sentiment creating a cautious environment. The coming weeks, particularly around the FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments, will likely determine whether these signals mark a true bottom or merely a pause in a longer downtrend.
FAQs
Q1: What does it mean when 79% of Bitcoin supply is held by long-term holders?
It indicates that a large majority of Bitcoin investors are not selling, which reduces available supply and can help stabilize prices. Historically, high levels of long-term holding have been associated with market bottoms.
Q2: Why are some analysts still cautious despite positive on-chain data?
Firms like Wintermute and Glassnode point to weak institutional demand and slowing stablecoin growth as risks. They also note that macro factors, such as Fed policy and geopolitical tensions, could still push prices lower.
Q3: How might the upcoming FOMC meeting affect Bitcoin?
Interest rate decisions and forward guidance from the Federal Reserve can influence risk asset prices, including Bitcoin. A hawkish stance could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto prices, while a dovish tone might support a rally.
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