Bitcoin May Bottom in Q3 as On-Chain Data Shows Early Accumulation: Glassnode

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has signaled that Bitcoin may be approaching a market bottom in the third quarter of 2025, as early accumulation patterns among long-term holders begin to take shape. The assessment, based on proprietary on-chain metrics, suggests that selling pressure is waning and that a shift toward accumulation is underway, though a definitive bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Indicators

Glassnode’s analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the exchange flow balance, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and the supply held by long-term holders. As of late July 2025, data shows a noticeable decline in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, a pattern historically associated with reduced selling intent. Additionally, the SOPR has dipped below 1, indicating that short-term holders are selling at a loss, a condition that often precedes market bottoms.

The firm’s Accumulation Trend Score, which measures the relative size of entities accumulating Bitcoin, has moved into positive territory for the first time since early 2025. This shift suggests that larger, more experienced market participants are beginning to increase their positions, even as retail sentiment remains cautious. Glassnode notes that similar patterns were observed during the bottoms of 2018, 2020, and 2022.

Market Context and Timeline

Bitcoin has traded in a range between $50,000 and $65,000 throughout the second quarter of 2025, after reaching an all-time high of $73,750 in March. The correction, driven by regulatory uncertainty in the United States and a broader risk-off sentiment in global markets, has seen the asset lose approximately 20% from its peak. Glassnode’s models project that a bottom could form in Q3, with a potential recovery beginning in late September or early October, assuming no major macroeconomic shocks.

The firm emphasizes that on-chain data is a lagging indicator and that external factors, such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and geopolitical developments, could alter the timeline. However, the early accumulation signals are viewed as a positive sign for long-term holders.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the Glassnode data suggests that the current period may represent a strategic entry point, particularly for those with a long-term horizon. The early accumulation by large holders, often referred to as ‘whales’ and ‘sharks,’ typically precedes sustained price appreciation. However, Glassnode cautions against attempting to time the exact bottom, noting that accumulation phases can last several weeks or months before a clear uptrend emerges.

The analysis also highlights the importance of monitoring exchange reserves, which have fallen to their lowest levels since 2023. A declining supply on exchanges is generally considered bullish, as it reduces the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale.

Conclusion

Glassnode’s on-chain data provides a data-driven perspective that Bitcoin may be nearing a cyclical bottom in Q3 2025. While early accumulation signals are forming, the market remains subject to external pressures. Investors should consider these indicators as part of a broader strategy, rather than a precise timing tool. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the accumulation phase solidifies into a sustained recovery.

FAQs

Q1: What is Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score?
The Accumulation Trend Score measures the relative size of entities accumulating Bitcoin compared to those distributing. A positive score indicates that larger holders are increasing their positions, which historically has been a precursor to market bottoms.

Q2: Why is the SOPR metric important for predicting Bitcoin bottoms?
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) shows whether holders are selling at a profit or loss. A SOPR below 1 means short-term holders are selling at a loss, a condition that often signals capitulation and precedes a market bottom.

Q3: Can external factors override on-chain accumulation signals?
Yes. While on-chain data provides valuable insights, external factors such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic events, or geopolitical crises can delay or disrupt the expected bottom formation. Investors should use on-chain data as one tool among many.