Benjamin Cowen: Why Bitcoin’s 2021 Might Not End with a Bang – Is a Bearish Phase Here?

Is the crypto market bracing for a less than stellar end to 2021? Popular crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen suggests just that, especially for Bitcoin (BTC). In a recent analysis shared with his massive YouTube following of 597,000 subscribers, Cowen dives deep into why he believes Bitcoin’s 2021 journey might be more of a marathon of accumulation than a sprint to parabolic highs. Let’s break down Cowen’s perspective and understand what it could mean for your crypto portfolio.

Is Bitcoin Stuck in a Sideways Trend?

Cowen points out a key observation about Bitcoin’s price action throughout 2021: it’s been largely confined within a significant trading range. Think of it as Bitcoin pacing back and forth in a room, unable to decisively break out.

• The Range: Bitcoin has been oscillating between $28,000 and $65,000 for most of the year.
• Starting Point: As Cowen succinctly puts it, “This is where we started, right around $28,000, $29,000… That was the beginning of 2021.”
• Sideways Movement: Reflecting on the year’s price action, Cowen remarks, “And then so far, what have we done? Not a whole lot, right?”

This extended period of trading within a range is a crucial element in Cowen’s analysis. He questions whether Bitcoin can muster a significant breakout as the year draws to a close, acknowledging the possibility but tempering expectations for a massive year-end surge.

Why No Parabolic Rally in 2021 for Bitcoin?

While some might have anticipated another explosive year for Bitcoin after the rallies of the past, Cowen suggests 2021 has been different. He believes the data indicates a deviation from the parabolic growth patterns some might have expected.

Cowen elaborates, “But look: I don’t think 2021 for Bitcoin is going to go down as a parabolic rally year in the sense that we spent most of the year going sideways.”

He highlights the contrast between the anticipation of rapid, upward movement and the reality of Bitcoin’s largely horizontal price action throughout the year. This sideways trend, according to Cowen, is a significant departure from a typical parabolic bull run.

Is a 130% Gain ‘A Whole Lot of Nothing’ for Bitcoin?

Cowen acknowledges the range between Bitcoin’s low and high points in 2021 might appear substantial at first glance. However, he argues that for seasoned Bitcoin holders, a 130% gain within a year might not be considered extraordinary, especially when compared to previous bull cycles.

“You take a look at what’s happened in 2021 for Bitcoin, a whole lot of nothing… We’ve more or less just been in this range of approximately 130%… I guarantee you most Bitcoiners don’t get out of bed for a 130%.” Cowen explains.

While a 130% increase is undoubtedly significant in traditional financial markets, the crypto space, particularly Bitcoin, has historically delivered much larger and faster gains during bull markets. Cowen suggests that this year’s returns might feel underwhelming to those accustomed to Bitcoin’s more explosive phases.

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2021: The Year of ‘Great Accumulation’ for Bitcoin?

Instead of dismissing 2021 as a lackluster year for Bitcoin, Cowen reframes it as “The Great Accumulation Year.” He posits that this period of sideways trading is actually a phase of reaccumulation, setting the stage for a potentially extended bull cycle into 2022.

Cowen elaborates on this point, stating, “I think there’s a lot of recency bias today because we’ve come up back to the top of the range… Just like there was a lot of euphoria over here (Jan 2021 to March 2021). We could certainly break out here…”

Extending the Bull Cycle into 2022?

Cowen’s analysis suggests that the current market conditions point towards a lengthening of the Bitcoin bull cycle, pushing its peak potentially into 2022. He emphasizes that while a breakout in 2021 is possible, the overall data he observes indicates a different trajectory.

“But I still think, based on all the data that I look at, that the cycle should lengthen into 2022 at the very least. And that when I look at this (2021 range), I just say, ‘You know what 2021, for the most part, has been a long reaccumulation year.’” Cowen concludes.

Key Takeaways from Cowen’s Bitcoin Analysis:

• Reaccumulation, Not Parabola: 2021 for Bitcoin is characterized by reaccumulation within a wide range rather than a parabolic bull run.
• Sideways Trading: Bitcoin has largely traded sideways between $28,000 and $65,000 throughout 2021.
• Extended Bull Cycle: Cowen anticipates the Bitcoin bull cycle to extend into 2022, with 2021 acting as a prolonged accumulation phase.
• Moderate Gains: A 130% gain in 2021, while substantial in traditional markets, may be perceived as modest by seasoned Bitcoin investors accustomed to larger bull market returns.

In Conclusion: Patience Might Be Key

Benjamin Cowen’s analysis presents a nuanced perspective on Bitcoin’s 2021 performance. Instead of a year of explosive growth, he paints a picture of strategic accumulation, suggesting that the real fireworks might be delayed until 2022. For Bitcoin holders, this could mean that patience, rather than immediate gratification, might be the key to navigating the market as we move towards the new year. Keep an eye on those ranges and stay informed as the crypto landscape continues to evolve!