Bernstein Lifts Robinhood Price Target to $160, Sees Prediction Market Revenue Surpassing Crypto by Q2

Investment bank Bernstein has raised its price target for Robinhood Markets (HOOD) to $160 from $130, while maintaining an outperform rating. The revision comes as the firm projects that emerging financial markets — including prediction contracts, perpetual futures, and tokenized stocks — could collectively be worth more than $70 billion, with Robinhood positioned as one of the primary beneficiaries.

Prediction Markets: A New Revenue Driver

In a research note published this week, Bernstein analysts highlighted that Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue in the second quarter of 2025 is expected to exceed its revenue from cryptocurrency trading. This marks a significant shift in the company’s revenue composition, which has historically been heavily tied to crypto market activity.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, sports results, or economic indicators. Robinhood has been expanding its offerings in this area, positioning itself to capture a growing share of retail investor interest.

Cyclical Weakness in Crypto, Not Structural

Bernstein’s analysis suggests that the current subdued conditions in the broader cryptocurrency market are likely cyclical rather than structural. The firm noted that its outlook does not factor in a potential rebound in Bitcoin prices, implying further upside for Robinhood if crypto markets recover.

This distinction is important for investors: if crypto weakness is temporary, Robinhood’s core trading business could rebound strongly. Meanwhile, the growth of prediction markets provides a diversifying revenue stream that is less dependent on Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

What This Means for Robinhood Investors

The $160 price target represents roughly a 23% increase from Bernstein’s previous target and signals strong conviction in Robinhood’s ability to capitalize on new market segments. The firm’s outperform rating suggests it expects the stock to deliver better returns than the overall market over the next 12 to 18 months.

For retail investors, the key takeaway is that Robinhood is evolving beyond its reputation as a crypto-trading platform. The expansion into prediction markets and tokenized assets could provide more stable, recurring revenue streams that are less volatile than cryptocurrency trading fees.

Conclusion

Bernstein’s updated price target reflects growing confidence in Robinhood’s strategic pivot toward prediction markets and other emerging asset classes. While the crypto market remains subdued, the bank views this as a temporary cycle rather than a permanent decline. If prediction market revenue indeed surpasses crypto revenue in Q2, it would validate Bernstein’s thesis and mark a significant milestone in Robinhood’s business transformation.

FAQs

Q1: Why did Bernstein raise Robinhood’s price target?
Bernstein raised the target from $130 to $160, citing Robinhood’s potential to benefit from new markets worth over $70 billion, including prediction contracts, perpetual futures, and tokenized stocks. The firm also expects prediction market revenue to exceed crypto trading revenue by Q2 2025.

Q2: What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are platforms where users can trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, sports games, or economic data releases. Robinhood is expanding into this space to diversify its revenue beyond cryptocurrency trading.

Q3: Is the current crypto market weakness permanent?
Bernstein analysts believe the weakness is cyclical, not structural. They note that their outlook does not assume a Bitcoin price rebound, meaning Robinhood’s potential upside could be even greater if crypto markets recover.