Bitcoin’s extended period of lateral price movement shares a striking resemblance with the patterns seen in the two previous Bitcoin market cycles. Both of these cycles experienced a pivotal shift in November, coinciding with a significant event: the halving.
Market observers suggest that Bitcoin’s current lateral price action might transition to a bullish trajectory as early as November, mirroring the behavior observed in prior cycles leading up to the halving event. On the 10th of October, cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher referenced a chart from CryptoCon, pointing out the similarity between recent Bitcoin patterns and those observed in previous market cycles.
Deutscher commented, “This type of lateral price movement is characteristic of the period spanning from the second to the fourth quarter in pre-halving years.” He also noted that, historically, November 21st has served as a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s price, marking the commencement of an upward trend as it approaches the impending halving event.
To illustrate this, consider 2015, when Bitcoin underwent six months of lateral trading before embarking on a notable ascent, primarily in November. Similarly, in 2019, the cryptocurrency market remained relatively flat throughout most of the year, only to surge towards the year’s end.
An observant self-proclaimed crypto trader and technical analyst known as “Mags” drew a parallel observation. Mags pointed out that Bitcoin’s current position finds it trading at a level around 60% below its all-time high, much like the circumstances seen in 2015 and 2019. This suggests a potential pattern of behavior.
Galaxy Trading chimed in with a prediction that aligns with this potential pattern. They suggested that a cycle akin to those in the past could lead to a significant price fluctuation or, as they put it, a “dump” in Bitcoin’s value, possibly occurring around the dates of November 10th to 15th.
The Bitcoin halving event is roughly half a year away and is expected to take place either in late April or early May, depending on the particular countdown timer referenced.
Meanwhile, in a report released on October 9th, Markus Thielen, the head of research at the crypto financial services firm Matrixport, shared a distinct perspective. Thielen predicts that Bitcoin’s price may experience a surge as we approach 2024, albeit for different reasons. He mentioned, “Currently, the most critical macroeconomic factor appears to be a reflection of the situation in 2019 when the Federal Reserve halted its interest rate hikes, leading to a substantial upturn in Bitcoin prices.”