Caution for Bitcoin Bulls: Analyst Warns of Sub $20,000 Scenario and Prolonged Bearish Phase

In a startling turn of events, the uncontested king of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), has plummeted to levels last seen in early 2023. Investors are on edge as they wonder if the dreaded sub-$20,000 abyss will once again hound the battle-hardened Bitcoin bulls after they suffered another shattering defeat.

Has Bitcoin truly reached rock bottom, or is BTC due for an even deeper descent? The burning question continues as persistent uncertainty grips the market.

Bitcoin’s present trajectory, in the opinion of Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg, is eerily similar to the crash of the US stock market in 1930.  The 100-week moving average (MA) chart for Bitcoin clearly shows a rollover pattern and a negative trend, which McGlone emphasizes in his research. 

Consideration should be given to the ramifications of this pattern, the fundamental rule of “not going against” the Federal Reserve (Fed), and the possibility that one of history’s best-performing assets would reverse. US Treasury two-year notes yield around 5%, marking a historic high in the crypto world and potentially adding to the Bitcoin headwinds.

Bitcoin may now be in for a protracted period of retracement because it was created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and during a time of extremely low interest rates.

According to Mcglone, the appeal of a digital equivalent to gold can be alluring in an era of close to zero and negative interest rates. The safest assets in the world give a two-year total return of about 10%, therefore the situation is changing. The price of Bitcoin and other riskier assets may be impacted by this change.

There are precedents throughout history for the significance of the about 5% yield on US Treasury two-year notes. It brings to mind the period prior to the financial crisis and the invention of Bitcoin. This association indicates that most risk assets may face challenges. 

The current negative biases in Bitcoin are confirmed by McGlone’s analysis, which focuses on the 100-week moving averages. This is especially true when compared to the highest Treasury yield competition in almost two decades.

Many investors are unsure about the future of Bitcoin due to its current price trajectory, which some analysts have compared to previous price crashes. Keith Alan, a co-founder of Material Indicators, provided some market insights. Alan has been keeping a careful eye on Bitcoin’s price changes ever since the bear market started, and he recently shared a chart that shows the possibility of a retest of the sub-$20,000 levels. 

Although he acknowledges that there might be short-term scalping chances, Alan suggests caution and moderate exposure in order to save money for what he thinks might be a generational buying opportunity. Alan specifically states that he does not think Bitcoin has reached its bottom. 

The chart shows numerous downrange levels and demonstrates Alan’s outlook for potential future negative movement. 

The strength of support at $25,000 is vital for the bullish case in the near term, as seen in Alan’s chart, as the Bitcoin market is at a pivotal point. Failure to maintain this level might trigger a return to the bull market peak in December 2017 at $19,800.Concerns for Bitcoin are increased by the likelihood for the downside trend to continue, possibly reaching a four-year bottom near the peak of the bull market in June 2019 of $13,800. Many bulls would be caught by surprise by this situation, especially in light of the widespread perception that the crypto winter was coming to an end in 2023.

For the most well-known cryptocurrency on the market, the trend has changed, and the bulls must protect their remaining support levels to prevent a prolonged slide for the rest of the year.

BTC has momentarily recaptured the $26,000 mark, although it is still down more than 7% over the last 24 hours.