Bitcoin (BTC) has started the first week of July on a positive note, with the $30,000 support holding firm. Despite a 20% gain in Q2, BTC price action remains resilient, with the weekly and monthly timeframes showing strength. Traders and analysts are now looking to what lies ahead for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
TradFi (Traditional Finance) markets are expected to be relatively quiet this week, as Wall Street prepares for the Independence Day holiday and minimal macroeconomic data is anticipated from the United States. Bitcoin will need volatility triggers from other sources if bulls are to break through long-standing resistance levels.
Views among market participants are mixed. Some believe that BTC can easily surpass $32,000 and go even higher, while others see this month as the peak of Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery. Factors that could influence BTC’s price performance in the coming days and weeks are being closely observed.
The weekly close for Bitcoin was favorable for bulls, with modest volatility and BTC/USD continuing its upward trajectory. The new week saw BTC touch $30,850 on Bitstamp, nearing the $31,000 mark and the yearly highs. However, there is a lack of catalysts for a trend change, leading optimistic traders to wait for further confirmation of upside continuation.
Prominent trader Jelle maintains a bullish stance, citing a favorable market structure and the reclaiming of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). He expects the bull market to kick off once the $32,000 resistance area is breached. Other traders, like Crypto Ed, hope for a push towards $36,000 and even $40,000 but anticipate a retracement to $28,000 as a potential dip-buying opportunity.
Bitcoin whales also play a role in maintaining the BTC price range, according to on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators. These whales have been both distributing and buying the dips in the $30,000 range, helping to keep Bitcoin within its current price range.
However, not all traders share a bullish sentiment. CryptoBullet forecasts an end to the bullish moves in July, with a local top around $36,000 and a subsequent dip, potentially even giving up key moving averages.
While the macroeconomic climate is expected to be calm this week, attention is being drawn to the U.S. banking sector. Regional banks continue to face challenges, and even Bank of America (BoA) has faced losses due to bond purchases. The situation in Germany’s central bank also raises concerns about the stability of fiat currencies and central banks.
Bitcoin miners have highlighted the significance of BTC surpassing and holding the $30,000 level, as they have increased the amount of coins sent to exchanges. However, overall miner balances have maintained a slow uptrend since the start of 2023, suggesting that miners are not facing significant difficulties.
On the bright side, stalwart Bitcoin hodlers are showing strong conviction, refusing to sell despite the price fluctuations. The amount of BTC deemed “illiquid” has reached levels not seen since the bear market of 2022, indicating that hodlers are holding on to their positions.
Overall sentiment in the crypto market remains indecisive, as reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It fluctuates between “neutral” and “greed” depending on Bitcoin’s performance around the $30,000 mark. Ethereum (ETH) also faces a similar challenge in reclaiming the $2,000 level.
As the crypto market navigates through various factors and sentiments, traders and investors will closely monitor BTC’s price movements and key resistance levels in the coming weeks.