Bitcoin’s price appears stuck in a bearish trend, trading below $26,000 at the time of writing. However, a medley of market metrics and historical data points to a potentially more volatile phase ahead. The cryptocurrency recently reached a 7-month high of 7,670,004.977 BTC in supply at a loss, according to a tweet by Glassnode Alerts. Meanwhile, CryptoCon, an account once associated with Twitter, drew attention to Bitcoin’s November 28th Time Cycles indicator, suggesting a coming “mid-cycle lull” for the digital asset.
Using 4-year cycles, CryptoCon’s theory has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s price behavior since its birth. According to this indicator, Bitcoin is currently in a phase expected to last the longest until the curve bottoms out. Bitcoin could kick off its next bull market in November 2024 if this analysis holds. Interestingly, this aligns well with the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, often a precursor to bullish market movements.
Even as Bitcoin prepares to enter its ‘mid-cycle lull’, subtle indications of an imminent uptick have emerged. For instance, market metrics from CryptoQuant reveal predominantly bullish signals. The coin is not under strong selling pressure, with net deposits on exchanges trailing below the seven-day average. Bitcoin’s aSORP is green, indicating that sellers are currently unprofitable, usually a sign of a bear market bottom. Furthermore, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric suggests the market is gripped by fear, often considered another bullish signal.
Adding credence to the bullish outlook are traditional market indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a bullish bias, and Bitcoin’s Money Flow Index (MFI) is trending upward. Both indicators enhance the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking its bearish pattern soon.
However, it’s not all smooth sailing for Bitcoin. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) presented a slight decline, potentially indicating weaker buying pressure or increased selling activity. This mix of conflicting indicators and future predictions underscores the market’s current unpredictability, making it crucial for investors to tread carefully in these uncertain waters.
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