Bitcoin may not have bottomed yet, early investor Terpin warns of possible drop to $40K

Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle bottom and could still fall to $40,000, according to early Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Terpin offered a cautious outlook for the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that the current downturn may have further to run before a true bottom forms.

Market cycle context: from autumn to winter

Terpin, a long-time figure in the crypto space, compared Bitcoin’s market phases to the four seasons. He said the market is currently transitioning from autumn to winter, implying that the worst may still be ahead. He noted that a typical market bottom does not rebound quickly, and that the kind of capitulation seen in previous cycles has not yet fully emerged.

This perspective is significant because it challenges the view that Bitcoin has already priced in the worst of the bear market. Terpin’s warning comes at a time when many investors are watching key support levels and hoping for a recovery. His reference to a potential drop to $40,000 represents a substantial downside from current levels, though he also expressed long-term optimism, saying Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million in a future cycle.

What’s supporting Bitcoin now?

Terpin acknowledged that certain factors are providing support for Bitcoin in the current environment. He pointed to the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the ongoing accumulation by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR) as positive forces. These institutional and corporate buyers may be helping to cushion the downside, but Terpin suggested they are not enough to prevent a further decline.

Spot ETFs have opened the door for mainstream investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset, while Strategy’s continued purchases have signaled confidence from a major corporate treasury. However, Terpin’s analysis implies that these supports may only slow the descent, not stop it.

Why this matters for investors

For those holding Bitcoin or considering entry, Terpin’s comments highlight the importance of patience and risk management. If his prediction of a drop to $40,000 materializes, it would represent a significant drawdown from current prices, but also a potential buying opportunity for long-term believers. His earlier forecast, made in late April, projected a bottom in October at $57,000—a level that has already been breached, underscoring the difficulty of timing market bottoms.

The broader implication is that the crypto market remains highly volatile and unpredictable. Even seasoned investors like Terpin can revise their views as conditions change. This serves as a reminder that any investment in Bitcoin carries substantial risk, and that market cycles can extend longer than many expect.

Conclusion

Michael Terpin’s warning that Bitcoin may not have bottomed and could fall to $40,000 adds to the cautious sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency market. While supports like spot ETFs and corporate buying provide some stability, the lack of a full capitulation suggests that further downside is possible. For now, investors would do well to stay informed and prepared for continued volatility, even as long-term prospects remain a point of optimism.

FAQs

Q1: What did Michael Terpin say about Bitcoin’s price?
Terpin said Bitcoin has not yet bottomed and could drop to $40,000, comparing the market to a transition from autumn to winter.

Q2: What factors are supporting Bitcoin’s price currently?
Terpin mentioned spot Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy’s (MSTR) ongoing purchases as supportive factors, though he believes they may not prevent a further decline.

Q3: Has Terpin made other Bitcoin price predictions?
Yes, in late April he projected a bottom in October at $57,000, which has already been surpassed, showing the difficulty of precise predictions.