Mike McGlone, a senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could fall to around $10,000 — its long-term average — as the crypto market shows signs of a broad correction. His analysis points to a breakdown in the correlation between cryptocurrencies and equities, a development that typically signals underlying weakness in digital assets.
Key Bearish Signals
McGlone noted that in late May, the crypto market diverged from traditional stocks. While the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies failed to follow suit, suggesting a loss of momentum. Another bearish indicator he cited is the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI), which has fallen below the 2,000 mark — roughly half its peak in 2025.
According to McGlone, the market is now in a broad “bubble-deflating phase.” He draws parallels to the 2018 correction, when Bitcoin lost more than 80% of its value after a similar period of exuberance. A drop to $10,000 would represent a decline of roughly 85% from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $69,000.
Counterargument: Spot ETF Demand
Despite the bearish outlook, some industry analysts argue that a crash to $10,000 is unlikely. They point to the strong and sustained demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity. These ETFs have attracted billions of dollars in inflows since their approval, creating a new and significant source of buying pressure that did not exist during the 2018 downturn.
Proponents of this view argue that institutional demand provides a price floor that could prevent Bitcoin from revisiting its long-term average. The ETFs have also broadened the investor base, bringing in pension funds, endowments, and other long-term holders who are less likely to panic sell during market downturns.
McGlone’s Previous Predictions
This is not the first time McGlone has forecast a drop to $10,000. He made similar predictions in February and April of this year, though Bitcoin has not yet reached that level. The repeated nature of his warnings has led some critics to question the timing of his forecasts, though he maintains that the underlying market dynamics remain fragile.
McGlone also identified a recovery to $75,000 as a key turning point. If Bitcoin can reclaim that level, it would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially invalidate the bearish thesis. Until then, he expects continued downside pressure.
Why This Matters
For investors, the divergence between crypto and equities is a critical signal. Historically, Bitcoin has traded in tandem with risk assets like tech stocks. When that correlation breaks down, it often indicates that the crypto market is facing unique headwinds — such as regulatory uncertainty, declining network activity, or waning retail interest.
For the broader financial ecosystem, a sustained Bitcoin decline could impact the profitability of mining companies, reduce trading volumes on exchanges, and slow the pace of institutional adoption. However, the presence of spot ETFs provides a structural support that may cushion the fall.
Conclusion
While Mike McGlone’s bearish forecast for Bitcoin is grounded in historical patterns and current market data, the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs introduces a new variable that could alter the trajectory. Investors should weigh both the technical warning signs and the structural demand from institutional products. The $75,000 level remains a critical threshold to watch for any sign of recovery.
FAQs
Q1: Why does Mike McGlone think Bitcoin could fall to $10,000?
He points to the breakdown in correlation between crypto and stocks, the decline of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index below 2,000, and historical patterns similar to the 2018 correction.
Q2: What is the counterargument to a Bitcoin crash?
Industry analysts cite strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock and Fidelity, which provide a new source of institutional buying pressure that could prevent a severe drop.
Q3: What price level would signal a recovery for Bitcoin?
McGlone identifies $75,000 as a key turning point. If Bitcoin reclaims that level, it could indicate renewed bullish momentum.
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