According to the Bitcoin historical volatility index, Bitcoin has never been so boring, as Christmas 2022 offers nothing for BTC bulls or bears.
Bitcoin failed to deliver a Santa rally for Christmas 2023, with the price of BTC remaining sideways on December 25.
According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data, BTC/USD is clinging to a narrow trading range around $16,800.
Throughout much of the week, the pair had stubbornly refused to offer any form of volatility, with the lack of a macro trigger reinforcing the pair’s lacklustre performance.
“Bitcoin’s volatility is at an all-time low,” wrote William Clemente, founder of cryptocurrency research firm Reflexivity, alongside a chart of the Bitcoin historical volatility index.
He went on to say that the total crypto market cap had retraced its entire gain from its 2017 highs and was now testing those highs for support.
Meanwhile, trader and analyst Phoenix saw parallels to Christmas 2018, right after the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous halving cycle.
He demonstrated that the time between its previous all-time high and Christmas lows a year later was broadly similar — 117 bars and 137 candles on the 3-day chart for 2018 and 2022, respectively.
Looking ahead, Bagsy, another popular analytics account, had some similarly depressing news for hodlers in 2023.
He predicted that BTC/USD would fail to break above $25,000 next year, deferring the real recovery until its halving year, 2024.
Analyst Toni Ghinea was even less optimistic, doubling down on his prediction that the next quarter would produce the next bear market trough on Christmas Eve.
This did, however, leave room for a last-minute dash toward $19,000 in the final week of the year.
“In December-January, the last bull trap was set at 17.5-19k. The final drop to 11-14k in Q1 2023, “He foresaw.