Can ChatGPT Predict the Future of Crypto? Coinbase Exec Unlocks AI Insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and More

Imagine asking an all-knowing oracle about the future of your crypto investments. What if that oracle was an AI? That’s precisely what Conor Grogan, the sharp mind heading business operations at Coinbase, has been exploring. He claims to have found a way to get ChatGPT, the groundbreaking AI chatbot, to spill the beans on the potential future of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Intrigued? Let’s dive into this fascinating experiment.

Unlocking ChatGPT’s Crypto Crystal Ball: How Was It Done?

Grogan, a self-proclaimed avid ChatGPT user, didn’t just casually ask the AI for its opinion. He devised a clever prompt, a sort of digital ‘jailbreak,’ to nudge ChatGPT into evaluating the likelihood of some pretty dramatic crypto scenarios. The results, shared in a tweet on April 30th, are certainly thought-provoking.

Bitcoin’s Fate: A Slow Fade or Enduring Powerhouse?

So, what does the AI think about the king of crypto? According to ChatGPT, there’s a 15% chance that Bitcoin, currently hovering around $28,637, could “fade to irrelevancy” by 2035. That means a potential price crash of over 99.99%. While that might sound alarming, remember it’s just one AI’s probabilistic assessment. Here’s a quick breakdown of ChatGPT’s predictions for some major cryptocurrencies:

Notice that while ChatGPT acknowledges Bitcoin’s potential staying power, it seems less optimistic about some altcoins. Ethereum, specifically, was predicted to potentially become obsolete and approach near-zero value by 2035. Litecoin and Dogecoin received even higher probabilities of facing a similar fate.

Beyond Crypto: Venturing into Political Predictions

Grogan didn’t stop at cryptocurrencies. His ‘jailbreak’ prompt also ventured into the realm of political forecasting. He asked ChatGPT to assess the likelihood of various political scenarios, including the futures of prominent figures like:

• Vladimir Putin
• Joe Biden
• Donald Trump

While the specific probabilities for these political forecasts weren’t detailed in the provided text, it highlights the versatility of Grogan’s approach in extracting probabilistic insights from the AI.

Even More Outlandish Forecasts: Aliens and AI’s Impact

The experiment took an even more intriguing turn when Grogan probed ChatGPT about broader, more speculative topics. One particularly eye-catching forecast involved the existence of aliens:

• Aliens on Earth: ChatGPT assigned a 10% chance to the statement, “Aliens have visited Earth and are being covered up by the government.”

This demonstrates the wide range of topics ChatGPT can engage with, even if the predictions are based on speculation and the vast dataset it has been trained on.

The Secret Sauce: Grogan’s ‘Jailbreak’ Prompt

So, what was the magic behind Grogan’s ability to elicit these predictions? He shared that he provided a specific script for the question, which he repeatedly fed into ChatGPT. He emphasized the consistency of the AI’s responses, stating:

“I ran this prompt 100 times on a wiped memory GPT 3.5 and 4, and GPT would return very consistent numbers; standard deviation was 10% in most cases, and it was extremely consistent directionally.”

This consistency suggests that even with the probabilistic nature of AI, there might be underlying patterns and assessments within ChatGPT’s vast knowledge base.

Not Grogan’s First Crypto-AI Rodeo

This isn’t the first time Grogan has leveraged ChatGPT’s capabilities in the crypto space. Back in March, he demonstrated that GPT-4, the more advanced version of ChatGPT, could even identify security vulnerabilities in Ethereum smart contracts and suggest ways to exploit them. This highlights the potential of AI in both analyzing and potentially securing blockchain technology.

The Power and the Potential: What Does This Mean?

Grogan’s experiments raise some fascinating questions:

• Can AI truly predict the future? While ChatGPT’s predictions are based on data analysis and pattern recognition, the future is inherently uncertain. These should be seen as probabilistic assessments, not definitive prophecies.
• What are the implications for crypto investors? While these predictions shouldn’t dictate investment strategies, they offer a unique perspective to consider alongside traditional analysis.
• How else can AI be used in the crypto space? From security audits to market analysis, the potential applications of AI in cryptocurrency are vast and still being explored.

ChatGPT’s Growing Prowess: A Quick Recap

The technology behind ChatGPT is rapidly evolving. OpenAI, its creator, has shown that GPT-4 can achieve impressive results in standardized tests, even surpassing human performance in some areas. The recent lifting of a ban in Italy, after addressing privacy concerns, signals a growing acceptance and understanding of this powerful AI tool.

Key Takeaways:

• A Coinbase executive used a clever prompt to get ChatGPT to predict the future of cryptocurrencies and political events.
• ChatGPT assigned a 15% chance of Bitcoin becoming nearly irrelevant by 2035.
• Altcoins like Litecoin and Dogecoin received higher probabilities of falling to near zero.
• The AI also provided probabilistic forecasts on political figures and even the existence of aliens.
• This experiment highlights the potential and evolving capabilities of AI in analyzing complex trends and data.

Looking Ahead: AI and the Future of Everything

Conor Grogan’s exploration into ChatGPT’s predictive abilities offers a glimpse into the potential of AI to analyze and interpret complex data sets. While we shouldn’t rely solely on AI for investment advice or political forecasts, these experiments spark important conversations about the role of artificial intelligence in understanding and navigating an increasingly complex world. Could ChatGPT be a new tool in the investor’s arsenal? Only time will tell.