In a cautionary message to investors, a highly regarded crypto analyst, Benjamin Cowen, highlights a potential deep correction looming in the altcoin markets. With a massive following of 783,000 subscribers on YouTube, Cowen asserts that historical trends indicate a significant downturn for altcoins.
Cowen emphasizes the strength of the Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) chart, which suggests a bullish outlook as Bitcoin (BTC) approaches its halving event next year. The Bitcoin dominance index tracks the proportion of the total crypto market capitalization held by Bitcoin. A bullish BTC.D chart implies that Bitcoin is gaining a larger share of the market at the expense of altcoins.
According to Cowen, “Fundamentally, the dominance is very bullish, and if the dominance is bullish, it’s unfavorable for altcoins in their Bitcoin pairs. Moreover, a bullish dominance in the pre-halving year tends to be unfavorable for altcoins in their USD pairs as well. This is what history has taught us. However, it’s not an absolute guarantee.”
Cowen further notes that if the crypto king’s dominance level surpasses 49%, it would signal a “risk-off” scenario. Even if Bitcoin’s price experiences a decline, its dominance level could still rise. He draws attention to a previous instance in May-June 2022 when Bitcoin’s price was decreasing, yet dominance was on the rise.
Expressing his belief that capital will likely shift from altcoins to Bitcoin, Cowen acknowledges that this process may take time. “The altcoin bleeding back to Bitcoin is evident, and it’s a slow process… The altcoin market will probably continue to bleed back to Bitcoin for a considerable period. Therefore, it’s advisable to adopt a Bitcoin-focused approach until the altcoin market experiences significant setbacks in their Bitcoin pairs and the dominance surpasses the range high.”
Cowen urges investors to closely monitor Bitcoin’s dominance and its impact on the altcoin market. While a correction in altcoins seems imminent, it is essential to exercise caution and wait for confirmation through sustained dominance above 49%. Only then, according to Cowen, should serious consideration be given to the altcoin market.