Weekly ->> Daily
- Not much has changed in BTC price action since the last week, the price is currently sideways.
- In weekly Price action, the price haven’t shown any bullishness since after the rejection from 25k.
- Still 19k acting as the strong support for the BTC mid-term price direction.
- 3 tap strategy won’t be made any significant turn into prices, letting prices re-enter back into the previous range
- As the price develops, strategies that look more favourable will be anticipated
- In LTF Daily->4H, the current price is accumulating for a week, and with the key event approaching in the mid of sept, BTC volatility could be seen.
- Now Instead of June&july lows being considered as 3 tap (since the price haven’t reacted as 3 tap need to ), now June & July lows are considered as the stops resting below the key weekly level.
- With the catalyst of major events incoming, there could be possibly volatility infuse in the coming week.
- Looking for the lows below 19k & 18k to be taken as (liquidity suckup)
- Reclaiming level 19k could be seen as a bullish reversion.
- The price must need to reclaim 21k to claim as relief reversion of price structure.
Daily –>> 4H
- A flash read of the previous week.
- Currently, the price follows the way I anticipated, it tapped 1500 around the area and showed some reaction, still in Daily the trend is toward the bearish side.
- Price struggling to breach 4H OB & Prev weekly Naked Point of Control(NPOC) price level ie 1620.
- Moreover, the next upside challengable price level that must need to be breached and accepted above is Composite 2D VAH above 1660 and Weekly level 1726.
- Looking through LTF Price action, the price needs to work a lot to change for any shift in the structure.
- Daily trend -> bearish, 4H struggling for any shift in price.
- Correlating with BTC price action, in BTC if the price falls lower below 18k to take the stops as the liquidity, following the move ETH will take the lows below 1400- 1300.
- In an aggressive case, it will tap the weekly low that formed back in July month.
On-chain metrics turn blockchain-based transaction data into actionable crypto market insights.
An Opportunity For Distribution
- Accumulation/distribution behaviour of all market participants separated by wallet size.
- Phase A🟡: The lows formed by BTC prices in the month of July after crashing below $20k, wallets that have (<1 BTC) and (>10k BTC) were net accumulators.
- Phase B🔴: After support formed in the range of 19k and revert of the prices to the upside 25k , lead the opportunity to distribute their coins.
- The distribution volume of the wallet ranging between 100-10k BTC were quite aggressive in selling the 24k range.
Tracking Demand via Network Activity
- The principles of Supply-Demand, the sustainability of a bear market rally can be critiqued when the Supply side is not balanced by new Demand and rising network activity.
- The trend of new addresses entering the market can provide a strong signal for network activity.
- Bear Market Confirmation 🔴: Alongside prices plunging from the April 2021 ATH, the 30 DMA of the New Address fell sharply below the 365 DMA. This established confirmation that the bear market phase is likely in effect through the lens of network activity.
- New Demand Confirmation🟢: After a lengthy market consolidation phase, an abrupt spike of 30 DMA above 365 DMA for New Addresses has historically signalled a promising sign of new demand entering the market.
- In the current scenario, the new address is lying below the 365DMA or more likely ranging from the past 2 months, not any huge demand but the wallets are active and most often signing into the network traffic.
Miner Revenue From Fees
- Allows for evaluation of the competitiveness of Block space. This can be considered a measurement of network congestion.
- Low Demand🔴: The early stages of bear market realization frequently coincide with the evaporation of fees from miners’ revenue. Here, the typical range of 2.5% to 5% has acted as a historical threshold between high and low demand in the market.
- High Demand🟢: In contrast, a sustained entrance above the aforementioned 2.5%-5.0% range can be considered a constructive sign for assessing a new wave of demand.
- Since July 2021, the miner’s revenue is been dropped hardly and since then it’s within the compact range of 1%-2%. which is drastically small compared to the 2nd Quarter of 2020 and the 1st Quarter of 2021.
- Comparing the nature of the correlation between July 2019-july2020 & July 2021 & July 2022, it can be observed that during the bearish phase of the market the miner’s revenue has been compacted to a very thin range.
- Following the nature of the cycle, Accumulation leads to Expansion, which surely will lead to some impact in the coming future.