Glassnode: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Bottoming Near $60K as Bearish Trend Persists

Bitcoin continues to trade in bearish territory, but on-chain data from Glassnode suggests the market may be approaching a bottom near the $60,000 level. In its latest weekly report, the analytics firm highlighted several indicators pointing to a potential stabilization, even as short-term losses remain elevated.

Key On-Chain Signals Emerge

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently trading below its True Market Mean Price of $77,000, which represents the average cost basis for actively traded coins. This metric is often used to gauge overall market profitability. However, the report notes that the entry of new investors has lowered the short-term holder cost basis to $71,400, suggesting that recent buyers are now holding positions at a loss.

Despite these bearish signals, Glassnode observes that the average daily realized loss has increased to $205 million, a level historically associated with capitulation and potential market bottoms. The report also notes that Bitcoin faces immediate resistance in the $66,800 to $70,700 range, though some buying pressure is being detected on Coinbase.

Spot Market Leading the Decline

Glassnode’s analysis indicates that the recent sell-off was primarily driven by spot market activity, with the derivatives market following suit and triggering long position liquidations. This pattern suggests that the decline is rooted in actual selling pressure rather than speculative leverage.

Additionally, a concentration of long gamma exposure in the options market between $60,000 and $64,000 is currently suppressing spot price volatility. This positioning is one of the factors forming a support zone at the $60,000 level, according to the report. Options market dynamics often act as a magnet for price action, and the current setup suggests that market makers may be defending this range.

What This Means for Investors

For traders and long-term holders, the emergence of these on-chain signals does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does provide a framework for understanding where support may form. The $60,000 level, reinforced by options market positioning and historical cost basis data, is now being closely watched as a potential floor.

However, the elevated realized losses and resistance overhead indicate that the market remains fragile. A sustained recovery would likely require a catalyst, such as a shift in macroeconomic conditions or renewed institutional demand.

Conclusion

Glassnode’s latest data offers a cautiously optimistic view for Bitcoin bulls, suggesting that the market may be nearing a bottom near $60,000. While bearish momentum persists, on-chain metrics such as realized losses and cost basis levels are aligning with patterns seen in previous market cycles. Investors should monitor these levels closely as the market continues to search for direction.

FAQs

Q1: What is the True Market Mean Price, and why does it matter?
The True Market Mean Price is an on-chain metric that calculates the average cost basis of all actively traded coins. It helps assess whether the market is in profit or loss. Bitcoin trading below this level suggests that the average holder is underwater, which can indicate bearish sentiment.

Q2: How does options market gamma exposure affect Bitcoin’s price?
Gamma exposure in options markets can suppress price volatility. When there is a concentration of long gamma positions around a specific price range, market makers hedge their exposure by buying and selling Bitcoin, which can create a support or resistance zone. In this case, the $60,000 to $64,000 range is acting as a support.

Q3: Should investors interpret rising realized losses as a buy signal?
Rising realized losses often indicate capitulation, which can precede market bottoms. However, it is not a standalone buy signal. It should be considered alongside other metrics like cost basis levels, trading volume, and broader market conditions. Historical patterns suggest that extreme realized losses can mark the end of a downtrend, but timing remains uncertain.