Bitcoin Soars, Then Retreats. What’s Behind This Week’s Rollercoaster? What’s Ahead?

Despite its decline on Thursday, bitcoin has gained over 13% in the last seven days. Despite the fact that macroeconomic concerns remain, the gain reflects investor optimism.

Bitcoin has had a crazy week, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization reaching many six-month highs before plummeting abruptly late Thursday, just to recover again.

Bitcoin (BTC) was last trading at $24,557, up more than 3.1% in the last 24 hours and falling short of a weekly high above $25,000 for the first time since August.

Despite the Thursday drop, bitcoin was trading 13% higher than it was seven days ago. The reasons for its resurgence from near-$22,000 support, subsequent collapse, and subsequent resurrection have varied. They emphasize cryptos’ persistent susceptibility to macroeconomic forces and industry-specific changes, even if Bitcoin has occasionally acted in an unexpected manner.

Late Tuesday, investor excitement overrode concerns about a stablecoin crackdown and a weak Consumer Price Index (CPI), driving bitcoin, ether, and most other cryptos higher. According to Riyad Carey, research analyst at crypto data firm Kaiko, bitcoin’s gain was “a bit of a euphoric bounce that regulatory issues have temporarily cooled off.”

Darius Tabatabai, co-founder of Vertex Protocol, a London-based decentralized exchange, has remarked that “we may have the makings of another bull market.”

Following hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, the disclosure of an SEC lawsuit against disgraced Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, and a disappointing wholesale pricing report, markets got nervous, and bitcoin plunged more than $1,000 in a matter of hours.

BTC’s “Intermediate-term overbought conditions create a headwind, with significant resistance near $25,200 approaching, increasing the likelihood of a short-term fall. “Support is approaching the 200-day moving average of $20,000,” Katie Stockton, founder of technical analysis research firm Fairlead Strategies, told CoinDesk in an email.

“After Bitcoin touched $25,000 and failed to extend higher, many active traders locked in profits,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at forex broker Oanda, in an email Friday. Short-term interest for risky assets may fade, which might keep Bitcoin consolidated as long as a regulatory crackdown does not bring down a key stablecoin or crypto company.”

Investors appeared to have shaken off the recent bad news by Friday afternoon, bringing bitcoin back into the $25,000 range. Cryptos outperformed the equities markets with which they were affiliated throughout the most of 2022. In the last week, Ether (ETH), the second most valued cryptocurrency by market size, has gained more than 12%.

According to Oanda’s Moya, the broader impact of the current crypto regulation push in the United States will not be apparent for some time, allowing markets to sort themselves out and the industry to continue to be flush with innovative projects. “There’s always a time when regulators and politicians want to hear from the market that they’re going to affect,” Moya told CoinDesk in an interview. “But I haven’t seen anything that prohibits this market from continuing to flourish, see investment, and having projects finished that would hopefully drive the use case argument for it,” he said, adding that a lot of money may desert stablecoins in favor of other types of crypto investments.

To be sure, some observers feel that regulatory excess will discourage investment and destabilize markets. “Based on their refusal to come to the table,” Al Morris, founder of the decentralized publishing protocol Koii Network, told CoinDesk in an email, “it’s clear that the SEC’s motivations of late are being driven by a desire to protect the financial incumbents – that is, Wall Street.” He added that overly strict US regulations could benefit other crypto hubs in Europe and Dubai.

Yet, investors remained overwhelmingly bullish on cryptocurrency markets. Instead of returning to the more aggressive rate hikes of 2022, they anticipate the Fed approving a second consecutive 25 basis point rate hike at its March meeting. They also believe that any economic contraction will be mild, resulting in the desired “safe landing” for central bankers.

“While higher-rate expectations weigh on the values of future cash flows,” noted Lucas Outumuro, head of research at blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, in a Friday newsletter.

Notwithstanding this, Moya noted on Thursday that “bitcoin resilience” has been “amazing” in the face of bond market volatility and a steady stream of regulatory news.

In a follow-up interview with CoinDesk, he added cautiously: “I believe we must take things week by week, and it appears that the main focus right now is to put consumer protections in place. That is where these potential probes will eventually be focused. I feel a segment of the market has grown accustomed to this level of expectation.”