A prominent trader who has been negative on Bitcoin (BTC) throughout its 2023 surge has broken his silence in the aftermath of the crypto king’s frantic march beyond $30,000. According to the pseudonymous analyst Capo, Bitcoin’s latest breakout to $30,000 does not necessarily suggest that the cryptocurrency has departed its long-term bear trend.
Capo reiterates his months-long gloomy perspective, saying there are more reasons to be negative than positive about Bitcoin’s future. “Congratulations to the bulls who were respectful and demanded $30,000!” My bearish scenario is still relevant. After hours and hours of in-depth examination and investigation, I still see much more reasons to be bearish than bullish. I’ve previously detailed some of it here, and I’d be happy to thoroughly explain the logic, as I always do. But I’ve lost interest in doing so.”
Although he is pessimistic on BTC, Capo says he is more interested in betting on other large-cap altcoins, such as the Solana smart contract system. (SOL). “I’ve stated numerous times that I’m short on BNB and TRX (now also SOL and AAVE), and the shorts continue to grow. Find a tweet in which I stated that I had shorted BTC. You won’t be able to find it.”
Even though Bitcoin bulls have built a stampede throughout the year, the crypto trader says trading is still a game of probabilities and adds that a BTC breakdown to $12,000 is still likely, even if Bitcoin bulls have launched a stampede throughout the year. “Everything is founded on chances. The more precise your analysis, the more precise the likelihood. When we were at $19,000-$20,000 levels, $30,000 saw a 10-20% increase. $12,000 seemed more likely. (and still is).
As you can see, this likelihood will never be 100%. That is why you don’t stake everything, because nothing is certain, and this is where volatility comes in. However, if you are on the side of the highest likelihood, you will win in the long term as long as you know how to handle the downswings and adhere to your plan while regulating your emotions.”
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