According to a well-known crypto analyst, three key models are indicating that Bitcoin’s (BTC) bear market woes may be far from over.
In a new strategy session, DataDash host Nicholas Merten tells his 512,000 YouTube subscribers that three models that have previously accurately predicted BTC’s bottom aren’t pointing toward a recovery anytime soon.
The trader begins by referring to the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric, which divides Bitcoin investors’ unrealized profit or loss by the BTC market cap.
“All three bottoming indicators continue to show no clear signs of recovery or strength. We got one of our favourite models here, net unrealized profit/loss, which is still in capitulation territory but far from what we’ve seen in previous bear markets.”
The trader then displays the supply in profit metric, which shows how many BTC are currently in the green.
“In a typical, normal Bitcoin bear market, we have a point range of about 45. We’re currently at 51, with a recent low of 49. We’re still a long way from there.”
Merten also mentions hash ribbons, an indicator that aims to show when Bitcoin miners have surrendered, typically because their operating costs exceed their mining rewards.
“To make matters worse, we have yet to witness genuine miner capitulation. Not even the typical capitulation seen in a typical bear market. With how bad things are right now, with Bitcoin’s price being so low in comparison to the average cost of miners, these companies are burning through cash to extract Bitcoin that is only worth a fraction of the cost of their mining and electricity.
A massive consolidation is required. There will be a lot of sell side pressure, which will only make things worse in the short term before they improve. It’s just a matter of supply and demand.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $16,595, representing a fractional gain on the day.