According to the latest research from crypto intelligence firm Coin Metrics, it is no longer feasible for nation-states to dismantle the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks via 51% attacks due to the exorbitant costs involved.
A 51% attack occurs when a malicious actor possesses over 51% of the mining hash rate in a proof-of-work system or 51% of staked crypto in a proof-of-stake network.
This power could be abused to manipulate the blockchain, compromising trust.
In a report released on February 15, Coin Metrics researchers Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Waters, and Matias Andrade contended that nation-state attackers can no longer sustain such assaults due to the prevailing cost of capital and operational expenses needed to attain 51% control.
The researchers introduced a metric named “Total Cost to Attack” (TCA) to precisely gauge the expense of launching an attack on a blockchain network.
Utilizing TCA, the report concluded that there are no financially rewarding avenues to attack either the Bitcoin or Ethereum networks, negating the financial incentive for malicious actors.
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“In none of the hypothesized attacks presented here [would the attacker] be able to profit by attacking Bitcoin or Ethereum,” read the report.
“Consider that even in the most profitable double spend scenario presented, where the attacker could potentially make $1B after spending $40B, that would account for a 2.5% rate of return.”
Analysing secondary market data and real-time hash rate output, the report revealed that a 51% attack on Bitcoin would necessitate an actor to procure a staggering 7 million ASIC mining rigs, costing approximately $20 billion.
Acknowledging the scarcity of available ASIC rigs, the report explored an alternative attack vector, which might be pursued by a particularly “relentless” actor.
Assuming a nation-state attacker could fabricate their own mining rigs—identifying the Bitmain AntMiner S9 as the only “plausible” device for reverse-engineering—it would still exceed a $20 billion investment.
Furthermore, the report debunked concerns over a potential 34% staking attack from Lido validators on Ethereum, suggesting it would be both time-consuming and financially prohibitive.
Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter commended Coin Metric’s research as “enormously important,” highlighting its rigorous empirical analysis as a significant contribution to the literature.
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