In the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), renowned lawyer and CryptoLaw founder, John Deaton, has expressed his confidence in Ripple’s chances of emerging victorious. With the lawsuit’s conclusion drawing closer, Deaton tipped the SEC’s chances of achieving an outright win at less than 3%.
The SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, accusing the company of conducting an unregistered securities offering through the sale of its XRP token, valued at $0.53 at the time. Deaton has been a vocal advocate for Ripple, and during a recent episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, he estimated a 25% probability that U.S. District Judge Torres would rule in Ripple’s favor. Additionally, he gave a 50% chance that Ripple would succeed through a “splitting the baby” ruling.
The term “splitting the baby” refers to Judge Torres drawing a line in the sand and potentially ruling that XRP was offered as an unregistered security before 2018. However, recent developments, such as the Hinman documents that reference a 2018 speech by former SEC Director William Hinman, suggest that cryptocurrencies can transition from securities to commodities once they achieve a sufficient level of decentralization.
Deaton confidently stated, “I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security, and that secondary market sales show comment. Even if [Judge Torres] does rule finding that Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales.”
While Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, and other executives have long anticipated the lawsuit’s resolution, Deaton emphasized that Judge Torres would likely reach a final decision before September 30 of this year.
Deaton also drew attention to the “six-month list,” a compilation of pending summary judgments that district judges must submit to Congress. These lists are published on the last day of March and September and reveal any prolonged delays. Notably, Judge Torres has never appeared on this list, suggesting her commitment to efficiently handling cases.
Furthermore, Deaton shared his predictions regarding the price of Ripple’s native XRP token following a favorable ruling, suggesting that a range between $2 and $10 is reasonable.
Looking ahead, Deaton urged the Ripple community to closely monitor June 13, as the unsealing of the Hinman materials could significantly impact the case. Rumors have also circulated regarding Ripple potentially going public through an initial public offering (IPO) after the lawsuit concludes. According to a tweet from Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett on June 2, Ripple held a “road show” to meet with underwriters and investors, generating interest in a potential public offering.
With Deaton’s unwavering confidence in Ripple’s chances and the impending decision by Judge Torres, the outcome of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit holds significant implications for the cryptocurrency industry at large.