BIS Warns Strait of Hormuz Blockade Could Reshape Global Economic Outlook

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a stark assessment of the potential long-term consequences of a historic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the disruption to energy and raw material supplies poses a new and persistent threat to the global economic outlook. In a report released on June 28, the BIS noted that while geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat and oil prices have fallen sharply from their peaks, the structural impact of the shock could linger for years.

BIS Assessment: Resilience Meets Persistent Risk

The BIS report acknowledged that the global economy demonstrated relatively strong resilience in early 2025, buoyed by optimism surrounding advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and better-than-expected global trade performance. However, the institution cautioned that this optimism may be short-lived. The report specifically highlighted that while AI holds promise for boosting future productivity, the current wave of large-scale capital investment in AI infrastructure may be difficult to sustain if supply bottlenecks continue to constrain production across key sectors.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas transit through the strait. A blockade, even a temporary one, can trigger cascading effects on energy prices, shipping costs, and industrial supply chains worldwide.

Long-Term Economic Implications

The BIS analysis suggests that the economic impact of the blockade is not limited to the immediate spike in oil prices. The disruption has exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains that were already under strain from geopolitical fragmentation and trade tensions. The report indicates that even as oil prices retreat, the structural damage to trade routes and the increased cost of insuring and rerouting shipments could persist.

Impact on AI and Technology Investment

A key point in the BIS report is the intersection between energy supply disruptions and the technology sector. The current AI boom requires massive amounts of energy for data centers and computing infrastructure. If energy costs remain elevated or supplies remain uncertain, the pace of AI investment and deployment could slow. The BIS warned that the optimism surrounding AI may not last long if the underlying economic conditions—particularly energy availability—deteriorate.

Conclusion

The BIS report serves as a reminder that geopolitical shocks can have far-reaching and lasting effects on the global economy, beyond the immediate volatility in financial markets. While the immediate crisis in the Strait of Hormuz may have eased, the underlying risks to energy security, supply chain stability, and technology investment remain. Policymakers and investors should prepare for a prolonged period of adjustment, where the cost of energy and raw materials stays structurally higher than pre-crisis levels.

FAQs

Q1: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. It is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments, with about 20% of the world’s oil passing through it. Any disruption can have immediate and severe effects on global energy prices.

Q2: What did the BIS report specifically say about the blockade’s impact?
The BIS report stated that while geopolitical tensions have eased and oil prices have fallen, the structural impact of the blockade could persist. It warned that the disruption to energy and raw material supplies poses a new threat to the global economic outlook and could undermine the sustainability of large-scale capital investments, including in AI.

Q3: How does this affect the AI and technology sector?
The AI boom relies heavily on affordable and reliable energy for data centers and computing infrastructure. The BIS noted that if energy costs remain high or supplies remain uncertain due to the blockade’s aftereffects, the current wave of AI investment may slow, and the optimism surrounding productivity gains from AI may not last.