Galaxy Digital Slashes Odds of CLARITY Act Passage This Year to 50%

Galaxy Digital’s research division has revised its forecast for the passage of the CLARITY Act this year, lowering the probability from 60% to 50%. The firm attributes the downgrade to procedural delays in merging the bill between the Senate Banking Committee and the House Agriculture Committee, noting that a consolidated draft has not yet been released.

Timeline Tightens as July Recess Approaches

According to Galaxy Digital, the legislative calendar is becoming increasingly constrained. The bill must clear both chambers before the late July recess, a deadline that analysts describe as ambitious. The Senate requires 60 votes for passage, a threshold that demands bipartisan support. If the Senate Majority Leader does not schedule a floor vote by early July, discussions are likely to be pushed to September, when the midterm election season will dominate the political landscape, making passage significantly more difficult.

Ongoing Challenges and Competing Priorities

Beyond the calendar, Galaxy Digital points to several unresolved hurdles. The bill faces competition from other high-priority legislation, and internal disagreements over ethics provisions remain unsettled. These factors collectively dampen the likelihood of a smooth legislative process in the coming weeks.

What Could Improve the Odds?

Despite the lowered probability, Galaxy Digital notes that the outlook could improve if the bill’s consolidation proceeds quickly and a floor vote is scheduled in July. A successful vote before the recess would signal strong bipartisan momentum and could set a precedent for future crypto-related legislation.

Conclusion

The CLARITY Act’s path through Congress remains uncertain, with a 50% probability of passage this year according to Galaxy Digital. The coming weeks will be critical as lawmakers navigate procedural hurdles, competing priorities, and the looming election season. For the crypto industry, the outcome carries significant implications for regulatory clarity and market stability.

FAQs

Q1: What is the CLARITY Act?
The CLARITY Act is a proposed U.S. federal bill aimed at providing regulatory clarity for digital assets, particularly regarding the classification of cryptocurrencies as securities or commodities.

Q2: Why did Galaxy Digital lower its odds?
The firm cited delays in merging the bill between the Senate Banking Committee and the House Agriculture Committee, a tight legislative timeline before the July recess, and unresolved ethics provisions within the bill.

Q3: What happens if the bill doesn’t pass this year?
If the CLARITY Act fails to pass in 2025, discussions are likely to be pushed to September, when the midterm election season will make bipartisan cooperation more challenging. The bill could be reintroduced in the next Congress.