Chamath Palihapitiya, a billionaire investor, predicts who will be the biggest loser in business markets this year as artificial intelligence rises.
Palihapitiya claims that Google will suffer the most as artificial intelligence begins to make the Google search function less relevant in a new episode of the All-In podcast.
He specifically mentions ChatGPT, a new AI-powered chatbot that has gained popularity since its release nearly two months ago.
Let me tell you about my biggest business failure. In terms of pure profitability and engagement, I believe Google Search is the biggest potential business loser this year. In terms of where the usage goes, I believe it is easier for me to see where it comes from rather than picking Open AI or ChatGPT. The reason for this is that I believe many people do not fully understand how machine learning and AI work. Just a quick primer: there are two large buckets of work.
There’s ‘learning,’ which is how you learn how to make predictions, and then there’s ‘inference,’ which is how you get the answer when you type something into the search box.
The thing about learning, and what ChatGPT is demonstrating, is that they have learned by crawling the entire web. There are five or six other organisations capable of crawling the entire web in terms of cost, compute, transformer quality, and AI quality.
So I find it easier to predict the decline in the quality of Google search because it is so much better than everyone else than I do who will win because I believe that with enough time and money, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and the Chinese internet companies can all compete…
I believe that consumers will become confused and will be able to obtain high-quality search results from a variety of sources, whereas today, most people would believe that Google is the only game in town.
According to the venture capitalist, Google may not lose its position as the world’s top search engine, but it may lose a significant amount of usage as other sites enter the fray.
“Google could lose 10 or 15% of usage to all of these other sites, and while this may not make any of those sites particularly relevant, it will have a material [and] measurable impact on Google and Google’s profit.”