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Bitcoin at Inflection Point: Potential Bull Run or Contraction?

According to one trader who analyzes historical price performance, Bitcoin’s current spot rates have reached a critical inflection point. Trading desk QCP Capital believes that Bitcoin prices have the potential to swing higher in a bull run, reaching the $33,000 to $35,000 level and reversing the sharp losses experienced in 2022. However, the trader also warns of a possible contraction and dip in price after the coin’s recent recovery and impressive performance in the past few weeks.

QCP Capital cites past performance and cyclical stages of Bitcoin to support its analysis. For example, during the early days of 2020, when Bitcoin fell due to pandemic-related lockdown fears, it rallied by 161% from early March to May 2020. Similarly, during the depth of the last bear market from mid-June to August 2022, Bitcoin experienced a 43% price surge. Peaks in Bitcoin prices have also coincided with supermoons, full moons that occur when the moon is closest to the Earth in its orbit.

While no scientific findings or statistical correlations support the belief that supermoons correlate with bullish markets, the trader suggests that analyzing the timing of Bitcoin price peaks and bottoms during supermoons can be used to predict market trends.

The trading desk emphasizes that fundamental factors will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s future direction. Monitoring the implementation of monetary policies by the US Federal Reserve is important, as rate cuts tend to favor store-of-value assets like Bitcoin. Despite decreasing inflation, the trader notes that it has not reached a level that would warrant a rate cut, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.

However, the trading desk also expresses caution, highlighting strong resistance at current spot levels. They believe the recent leg up in Bitcoin’s price was likely the final wave from the November 2022 lows. The $33,000 to $35,000 resistance zone is also a critical trend line. In the event of a dump, Bitcoin may retest the $24,000 to $26,000 support zone.

As the future unfolds, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will break above $31,300 and rally toward the $35,000 zone as predicted by the trading desk.


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