Bitcoin Enters Early Bull Market Phase, Analyst Says, But Key Hurdles Remain

Bitcoin has shifted into the early stage of a new bull market, according to on-chain analyst Julio Moreno, who said most indicators now point to a renewed upcycle. However, Moreno cautioned that the trend is not yet fully confirmed, with key technical and on-chain levels still posing risks.

What the Analyst Says

Moreno, a well-known on-chain analyst, said Bitcoin’s market trend has moved from a bearish phase into a bull phase, based on his proprietary metrics. He noted that the majority of indicators now support the start of a new upward cycle, but two factors warrant caution.

First, Bitcoin needs to break above its 365-day moving average, currently at $83,000, to officially confirm the bull market. Second, Moreno highlighted that the recent surge has led to high unrealized profits among holders, which could trigger selling pressure. He also pointed to a sharp increase in exchange inflows as a potential source of supply overhang.

Why It Matters

The distinction between a confirmed bull market and an early-stage one is significant for traders and long-term investors. A break above the 365-day moving average would signal strong momentum and could attract institutional interest. Conversely, a failure to hold above that level could lead to a pullback, especially given the profit-taking risks.

Context and Background

Bitcoin has historically seen sharp corrections even within bull markets. The current on-chain data suggests that while the trend is positive, the market is not immune to volatility. Moreno’s analysis aligns with the view that Bitcoin’s price action often outpaces underlying fundamentals, making on-chain metrics a useful tool for gauging sustainability.

For everyday investors, this means staying cautious about short-term fluctuations while recognizing the broader upward trend. Exchange inflows, which have spiked recently, often precede sell-offs, but they can also be part of normal market activity.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s early bull market signal is a positive development, but the path forward is not without hurdles. The $83,000 moving average is a key level to watch, and investors should be prepared for possible volatility. Moreno’s overall outlook remains highly positive, yet prudence is advised.

FAQs

Q1: What is the 365-day moving average and why is it important?
The 365-day moving average is the average price of Bitcoin over the past year. It serves as a long-term trend indicator. Breaking above it often confirms a bullish market phase, while falling below can signal weakness.

Q2: What are unrealized profits and how do they affect Bitcoin’s price?
Unrealized profits are gains that investors have on paper but have not yet sold. When these profits are high, investors may be more inclined to sell, which can create selling pressure and lead to price corrections.

Q3: What are exchange inflows and why do they matter?
Exchange inflows refer to the amount of Bitcoin being transferred to exchanges. An increase often indicates that investors are preparing to sell, which can increase supply and potentially push prices down.