Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Analyst Reveals Crucial $87.5K Retest Scenario for 2025

Global cryptocurrency markets are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action as a prominent analyst projects a potential retest of a critical yearly level. According to Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, Bitcoin (BTC) will likely retest its yearly opening price of $87,500. This analysis, reported by Cointelegraph, arrives during a period of significant volatility and provides a data-driven framework for understanding current market mechanics. The forecast hinges on the interplay between large-scale investor behavior and key technical indicators, offering a neutral examination of potential near-term trajectories for the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitcoin Price Prediction and the $87.5K Level

Keith Alan’s analysis centers on Bitcoin’s yearly opening price, a psychologically and technically significant benchmark for institutional and retail traders. The $87,500 level represents the starting point for Bitcoin’s 2025 trading year, and a retest involves the price moving back down to challenge that level as support. Alan observes that while attempts are being made to defend the higher $92,000 support zone, substantial investors are positioning to test lower thresholds. This dynamic creates a tension between immediate support and the gravitational pull toward the yearly open. Consequently, market participants are scrutinizing order book data and on-chain metrics for confirmation of this potential move.

Technical analysts often view a retest of a major opening level as a healthy consolidation phase within a broader trend. It allows the market to gather liquidity and establish a stronger foundation for future price movements. For Bitcoin, which has experienced parabolic rallies and sharp corrections throughout its history, such retests are not uncommon. Historical data shows that similar retests of yearly opens have preceded both extended bull runs and prolonged bear markets, depending on the macroeconomic context. Therefore, understanding the conditions surrounding this specific prediction requires examining multiple timeframes and investor cohorts.

Technical Indicators and Conflicting Signals

The current technical landscape for Bitcoin presents a mosaic of conflicting signals across different time horizons. Keith Alan notes the possibility of a bullish “golden cross” forming on the daily chart, where a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term one. However, he immediately tempers this optimism by stating that short signals are prevailing on medium and long-term timeframes. This divergence is crucial for traders, as it suggests near-term bullish potential may be overshadowed by stronger bearish pressure on weekly and monthly charts. Such multi-timeframe analysis helps avoid the pitfall of relying on a single indicator.

For a genuine and sustained price rebound to occur, Alan outlines two specific technical prerequisites. First, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) would need to climb above 41 out of 100. The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, and a reading below 50 typically indicates bearish momentum. Secondly, the weekly closing price must reclaim a position above the 50-week moving average, which currently sits near $101,500. These are not arbitrary levels but are derived from historical performance and are widely monitored by algorithmic trading systems. The gap between current prices and these thresholds illustrates the significant work required for the market structure to turn decisively bullish.

Understanding Market Structure and Large Investor Behavior

The behavior of large-scale investors, often called “whales,” is a central component of this analysis. Material Indicators specializes in parsing order book data to identify the intentions of these major market participants. When these entities look to “test lower support,” they are often executing strategies that involve placing large buy orders at specific price levels or allowing the price to fall to accumulate assets more cheaply. Their actions can create cascading effects, triggering stop-loss orders and influencing sentiment among smaller traders. This creates a feedback loop where technical levels become self-fulfilling prophecies due to collective market focus.

Furthermore, the defense of the $92,000 level indicates where concentrated buying interest currently resides. If this defense fails, the path toward $87,500 becomes more probable. Market structure analysis in 2025 increasingly incorporates on-chain data, such as exchange net flows and illiquid supply changes, alongside traditional order book analysis. This holistic approach provides a more robust picture than price charts alone. For instance, a retest of $87,500 accompanied by a significant movement of Bitcoin off exchanges and into long-term storage wallets would be interpreted very differently than a retest driven by panic selling onto exchanges.

The Macro Context for Cryptocurrency in 2025

Any Bitcoin price prediction does not exist in a vacuum. The broader financial ecosystem in 2025 exerts considerable influence. Key factors include:

• Global Monetary Policy: Interest rate decisions by major central banks like the Federal Reserve directly impact liquidity and risk appetite.
• Regulatory Developments: Clarity or uncertainty regarding digital asset regulations in the US, EU, and Asia can catalyze or suppress institutional investment.
• Traditional Market Correlation: Bitcoin’s sometimes-strengthening, sometimes-weakening correlation with equity indices like the S&P 500 affects portfolio allocation decisions.
• Technological Adoption: Progress in layer-2 scaling solutions, institutional custody, and real-world asset tokenization underpins long-term network value.

Analysts like Keith Alan must weigh these macro forces against micro, chart-based signals. A technically driven retest to $87,500 could be accelerated or mitigated by a sudden macro event. Therefore, while technical analysis provides a framework for probability, it operates alongside fundamental and on-chain analysis in modern crypto market evaluation. The most respected analysts in the space consistently integrate all three disciplines to form a complete view.

Historical Precedents and Price Cycle Analysis

Bitcoin’s market cycles have exhibited recurring, though not identical, patterns. Retesting major support levels after a significant rally is a common theme. For example, in previous bull markets, Bitcoin has often revisited its 20-week or 50-week moving average before continuing its upward trajectory. The key differentiator between a healthy correction and a trend reversal lies in how the asset reacts at that support. Does it bounce decisively with high volume, or does it break through and consolidate below? Historical precedent suggests that a orderly retest of the yearly open, followed by a strong rebound, can actually reinforce bullish sentiment by shaking out weak hands and demonstrating resilient demand.

The following table contrasts potential outcomes based on how Bitcoin interacts with the $87,500 level:

Conclusion

The Bitcoin price prediction for a retest of $87,500, as outlined by analyst Keith Alan, provides a clear technical scenario for market participants to monitor. This analysis is grounded in observable order book dynamics, multi-timeframe technical indicators, and the behavior of large-scale investors. While the potential for a golden cross on daily charts offers a near-term bullish counterpoint, the prevailing short signals on higher timeframes and the specific weekly RSI and moving average hurdles suggest caution. Ultimately, the market’s reaction at this key yearly open level will offer critical evidence about the underlying strength of the current trend and set the tone for Bitcoin’s performance in the latter half of 2025. Investors and traders are advised to consider this technical framework alongside ongoing macro developments and on-chain data trends.

FAQs

Q1: What does it mean for Bitcoin to “retest” a price level?
A retest occurs when an asset’s price returns to a previously established level of support or resistance to test its strength. If the level holds as support, price often bounces higher. If it breaks, the price may move lower to find new support.

Q2: What is a “golden cross” in technical analysis?
A golden cross is a bullish chart pattern where a short-term moving average (like the 50-day) crosses above a long-term moving average (like the 200-day). It is traditionally interpreted as a signal that a bullish trend may be beginning.

Q3: Why is the weekly RSI level of 41 significant in this analysis?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum. A weekly RSI below 50 generally indicates bearish momentum. Surpassing 41 would signal a meaningful shift toward strengthening momentum, which is cited as a necessary condition for a sustained rebound.

Q4: How do large-scale investors influence Bitcoin’s price at support levels?
Large investors can place substantial buy orders at specific support levels, creating a concentration of demand that can halt a price decline. Their activity is visible in order book depth and can trigger algorithmic trading responses across the market.

Q5: Is a retest of the yearly opening price necessarily a bearish event?
Not necessarily. In the context of a long-term uptrend, a retest of a major support level like the yearly open can be a healthy consolidation. It allows the market to reset overbought conditions and build a stronger base for the next advance, depending on how it holds.