Scotiabank analysts project additional gains for the Canadian dollar against its US counterpart, targeting the 1.35–1.37 range, according to a note released this week.
What’s Driving the Loonie’s Momentum?
The Canadian dollar has strengthened recently, supported by a combination of firming crude oil prices and a broadly softer US dollar. As of this week, USD/CAD trades near 1.36, after moving lower from levels above 1.38 earlier in the month.
Scotiabank’s FX strategy team highlights that the pair’s break below key technical support opens the door for further downside toward the 1.35–1.37 zone. The bank notes that improving risk sentiment and resilient Canadian economic data are also contributing to the loonie’s appeal.
Market Context and Technical Levels
The 1.35–1.37 area represents a significant demand zone that previously acted as resistance in late 2024. A sustained move below 1.36 would confirm the bullish momentum for the Canadian dollar, while a rebound above 1.38 would negate the near-term outlook.
Traders are also watching the Bank of Canada’s policy path. While the central bank has signaled a pause in its easing cycle, any shift in rate expectations could influence the currency’s trajectory. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s stance remains a key external driver for USD/CAD.
Why This Matters for Investors
For businesses and individuals engaged in cross-border transactions, a stronger Canadian dollar reduces the cost of US imports and travel. Conversely, exporters may face headwinds as their goods become more expensive for US buyers. The currency move also affects portfolio returns for those holding US assets.
Conclusion
Scotiabank’s projection of further Canadian dollar gains toward 1.35–1.37 is grounded in technical momentum and supportive macro factors. While risks remain, including shifts in oil prices and central bank policies, the near-term bias favors the loonie.
FAQs
Q1: What is the current USD/CAD exchange rate?
As of this week, USD/CAD is trading near 1.36, after declining from higher levels earlier in the month.
Q2: Why is the Canadian dollar strengthening?
The loonie is supported by higher crude oil prices, a softer US dollar, and improving risk sentiment, along with resilient Canadian economic data.
Q3: What levels are key for USD/CAD?
Scotiabank identifies 1.35–1.37 as the target zone for further gains. A move below 1.36 confirms bullish momentum, while a rebound above 1.38 would invalidate the near-term outlook.
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