Crypto options exchange Deribit is making waves in the crypto space as its future-looking Bitcoin volatility index has hit a remarkable low, indicating a potential period of price stability for Bitcoin. According to Greeks Live, a crypto derivatives analytics platform, Bitcoin and Ether’s volatility index reached a multi-year low of 37% on July 24, with the current implied volatility level being the lowest in crypto’s history per the DVOL algorithm.
The Deribit Implied Volatility Index, or DVOL, provides insights into the expected volatility of a crypto asset over the next 30 days by analyzing option activity. Essentially, the index helps traders gauge potential price swings. The recent trend, however, suggests a different narrative.
Continued low liquidity in the market has significantly contributed to the depressed implied volatility (IV) levels for Bitcoin. Consequently, derivatives traders seem hesitant about major market movements in the short term, leading to a prolonged period of low volatility. This trend is expected to persist, as Greeks Live indicated, “the overall volatility of cryptocurrencies is declining, which will inevitably force the implied volatility of cryptocurrencies to keep going to new lows.”
These observations are not unique to Greeks Live, as other analysts using different metrics have come to similar conclusions. Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz noticed that Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands had contracted to record levels on July 24. This marks the tightest Bollinger Bands on the weekly timeframe, implying that price volatility has hit an unprecedented low.
Bollinger Bands are a statistical chart used to measure asset prices and volatility over time. They consist of a middle trend line flanked by two outer bands set at two standard deviations away from the middle line. The tightness of these bands indicates a period of reduced price swings, confirming the lack of turbulence in the crypto market.
For traders and investors, this decline in volatility poses both opportunities and challenges. While a calm market can bring a sense of stability and predictability, it may also limit potential profit margins from quick price swings. Additionally, subdued volatility might lead some traders to explore alternative markets with higher potential returns.
However, it is important to remember that the crypto market is inherently unpredictable. Sudden events or significant changes in market sentiment can still cause price fluctuations, despite the current low volatility. As always, it’s crucial for traders to exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and adopt risk management strategies while navigating the crypto landscape.
Deribit’s Bitcoin volatility index reaching a record low signals relative stability for the crypto market. The decline in implied volatility suggests traders are less optimistic about major price swings in the short term. Still, traders must remain vigilant and flexible, as the crypto market can surprise even the most experienced participants.
