Ethereum (ETH) is teetering on the edge of a significant drop below the $1,500 mark, driven by intriguing shifts in wallet activity, according to insights from on-chain analytics platform Santiment. While the short-term sentiment remains bearish, there is optimism that ETH’s long-term prospects may be buoyed by its burn mechanism.
The critical indicator at play here is the Mean Coin Age (MCA), which serves as a long-term metric for assessing the movement of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) that have been dormant for extended periods. A declining MCA suggests a substantial movement of these long-held UTXOs.
As of the latest data, ETH’s 90-day MCA has dwindled to 41.07, reinforcing Santiment’s view of an impending significant drop. This decline in long-dormant coins is further substantiated by a spike in circulation, reaching 634,000 on September 11, signifying that even UTXOs dormant for just three months are now on the move.
While earlier analysis had pointed to bearish trends in ETH’s price action, Santiment suggests that brighter days could follow the projected price dip. However, traders are not banking on a swift recovery, as indicated by the funding rate, which currently stands at -0.003%. The funding rate is a critical metric in perpetual futures contracts, reflecting the payments between long and short-positioned traders.
A negative funding rate, as seen with ETH, suggests a bearish sentiment as shorts pay longs a funding fee, making a substantial drop below $1,500 more likely in the short term.
To counteract these market-based indicators, Ethereum may need to look to other metrics for signs of recovery. One such metric is the Ethereum burned supply, representing the cumulative amount of ETH incinerated since the implementation of EIP-1559 during the London Hard Fork.
Under EIP-1559, transaction fees are not paid to miners/validators but are instead burned, reducing ETH’s supply and potentially enhancing its long-term value. While ETH has recently turned inflationary, the burned supply of Ethereum has also risen to 4.25 million, offering hope for a return to deflationary pressure and potential profitability for its price in the long run.
In conclusion, Ethereum faces a short-term challenge of potentially dropping below $1,500, driven by significant wallet activity and bearish market sentiment. However, the Ethereum burn mechanism offers a glimmer of hope for the altcoin’s long-term resilience and value.