Ethereum Monthly Chart Flashes Rare Buy Signal, Analyst Suggests Macro Bottom May Be Forming

A closely watched technical indicator has triggered a buy signal on Ethereum’s monthly chart for the first time in over a year, prompting speculation that the cryptocurrency may be nearing a significant price floor.

TD Sequential Signals Potential Reversal

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the development on social media, noting that the TD Sequential indicator—a tool used to identify price exhaustion and potential trend reversals—has flashed a buy signal on Ethereum’s monthly timeframe. According to Martinez, this is the first such signal since March 2025, which preceded a substantial rally.

The indicator’s historical track record on Ethereum’s monthly chart is notable. Martinez pointed out that a sell signal appeared in September 2021, ahead of a 78% price decline. A buy signal then emerged in September 2022, which preceded a 235% rally. Another buy signal in March 2025 was followed by a 182% increase.

While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the pattern suggests that the current signal could indicate that selling pressure is exhausting on a macro level. Martinez suggested that the ongoing correction might be part of a process to establish a significant short-term or cycle low.

What This Means for Ethereum Investors

The TD Sequential indicator works by counting price bars (in this case, monthly candles) to identify points where a trend may be overextended. A buy signal on a higher timeframe like the monthly chart is considered more significant than on shorter timeframes because it reflects broader market sentiment and potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics.

However, traders and investors should approach such signals with caution. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and no single indicator is infallible. The signal does not guarantee an immediate price reversal, but it does suggest that the risk-reward ratio for long positions may be improving from a historical perspective.

Broader Market Context

Ethereum, like the broader crypto market, has faced headwinds in recent months, including regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic pressures, and shifting investor sentiment. A potential bottom formation could attract institutional and retail interest, particularly if it aligns with other fundamental developments such as network upgrades or increased adoption of Ethereum-based applications.

The timing of this signal is also notable given the upcoming Bitcoin halving cycle and historical correlations between Bitcoin’s price movements and altcoin performance. If a macro bottom is indeed forming, it could set the stage for a new growth phase for Ethereum and the wider digital asset ecosystem.

Conclusion

The appearance of a TD Sequential buy signal on Ethereum’s monthly chart adds a data point to the ongoing debate about whether the current correction represents a buying opportunity or a precursor to further downside. While the indicator’s historical accuracy is compelling, it should be considered alongside other technical and fundamental factors. Investors are advised to conduct their own research and remain mindful of the inherent risks in cryptocurrency markets.

FAQs

Q1: What is the TD Sequential indicator?
The TD Sequential is a technical analysis tool developed by Tom DeMark. It is used to identify points of price exhaustion and potential trend reversals by counting the number of consecutive price bars (candles) in a given direction. A buy or sell signal is generated when the count reaches specific thresholds.

Q2: Is a monthly buy signal a guarantee that Ethereum’s price will go up?
No. While the TD Sequential has a strong historical track record on Ethereum’s monthly chart, it is not a guarantee. Market conditions can change, and other factors may influence price. It is best used as one tool among many in a comprehensive analysis.

Q3: How should investors interpret this signal?
Investors should view this signal as a potential indication that selling pressure may be waning and that a price floor could be forming. However, it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is advisable to combine this signal with other technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and a clear understanding of personal risk tolerance.