Ethereum Price Analysis: Key Resistance at $1,796 Could Open Path to $2,245, Says Analyst

Ethereum (ETH) could see a significant price rally toward $2,245 if it manages to break through a critical resistance zone around $1,796, according to analysis shared by crypto trader Ali Martinez on X. The assessment combines on-chain metrics with a technical trend reversal indicator, offering traders a potential roadmap for the next major move in ETH’s price action.

What the Indicators Are Signaling

Martinez identified the $1,796 level as a key resistance area based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric, which compares an asset’s current market price to the average price at which all coins were last moved. This zone also aligns with the baseline of the TD Sequential indicator, a tool used to identify potential trend exhaustion and reversal points. Above $1,796, Martinez noted a secondary resistance at $1,816. A decisive break above both these levels, followed by a move past the channel top of $1,844, could set the stage for a rally toward $2,245 — the average on-chain acquisition price for all ETH holders.

Understanding the MVRV and TD Sequential Context

The MVRV ratio is widely used by on-chain analysts to assess whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its cost basis. When the price approaches the average acquisition price (MVRV near 1), it often acts as a psychological magnet. The TD Sequential, developed by market technician Tom DeMark, adds a timing element by counting price bars to identify exhaustion points. Martinez’s analysis suggests that both metrics are converging around the $1,796–$1,844 range, increasing the significance of this resistance cluster.

Why This Matters for Ethereum Traders

For traders and investors, the $1,796 level represents a make-or-break point in the near term. A failure to break above it could lead to continued consolidation or a pullback toward lower support levels. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above $1,844 with volume could signal a shift in momentum, potentially attracting fresh buying interest. The $2,245 target is not arbitrary — it represents the price at which the average ETH holder would break even, a level that historically has acted as both resistance and support.

Conclusion

While technical and on-chain indicators offer a compelling case for a potential Ethereum rally, the market remains dependent on broader macroeconomic conditions and Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Martinez’s analysis provides a clear, data-driven framework for monitoring ETH’s next move, but traders should treat the $1,796–$1,844 zone as a critical decision point rather than a guaranteed breakout trigger.

FAQs

Q1: What is the MVRV metric and why is it important for Ethereum?
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio compares an asset’s current market price to the average price at which all coins were last transacted. When MVRV is near 1, the market price is close to the average acquisition cost, often acting as a support or resistance level.

Q2: What does the TD Sequential indicator do?
The TD Sequential is a technical analysis tool developed by Tom DeMark that identifies potential trend exhaustion and reversal points by counting price bars in a sequence. It helps traders time entries and exits.

Q3: Is the $2,245 target guaranteed if ETH breaks $1,844?
No. The $2,245 target is based on the average on-chain acquisition price for ETH holders, which historically acts as a magnet. However, market conditions, volume, and external factors can alter price behavior. A breakout above $1,844 increases the probability but does not guarantee the target.