According to economist and NYU professor Nouriel Roubini, strategic competitors of the United States would abandon the dollar in favour of a “bipolar” global reserve currency system. In a series of recent interviews, Roubini asserts that there is little doubt that China and Russia are collaborating with friends to develop an alternative monetary system that does not rely on the US dollar.
“Unfortunately, the cold war between the United States and China grows colder by the day…
Clearly, the United States Strategic Rivals – China, Russia, Iran or Korea, Pakistan, and their own friends and allies – want to build an alternative economic monetary and global reserve currency system because they are concerned about sanctions imposed by the US, Europe, and others.
The Chinese have $1 trillion in reserves. As a result, they will propose the RMB as an alternative to the US dollar, and we will gradually transition from a unipolar to a bipolar global reserve currency system.” According to Roubini, the process will not happen quickly, but the end result would limit the global economy and raise the cost of creating things.
“We’ve transitioned from free trade to secure trade, from offshoring to friend-shoring, and from just-in-time supply chains to just-in-case supply chains.” These things are expensive; they decrease global growth and raise production costs… It entails less funding for our twin fiscal and current-account deficits, even though we still have extremely substantial private and governmental debt inventories. When the US has exceptionally high private and governmental debt ratios, this might raise the cost of financing.”
Roubini believes the latest upheaval in the US financial sector is far from done. “I believe that the worst in severe banking stress is still ahead of us, and of course, this credit crunch will significantly reduce economic growth.” They lend to SMEs, to individuals, and to commercial and residential real estate. The credit crunch will send the US economy into a slump later this year.”
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