UK CPI Expected to Show Cooling Inflation in April, but Analysts Warn of Resurgent Price Pressures

Economists anticipate that the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due for release next week, will indicate a modest easing of inflation for April. However, a consensus is building that this reprieve may be temporary, with several structural factors poised to push price growth higher again in the second half of the year.

What the April Data Is Expected to Show

Market forecasts, compiled from a survey of leading economists, suggest the annual CPI rate for April will fall to around 3.1%, down from 3.2% in March. This would mark the lowest reading since September 2021 and provide some relief to households and businesses that have endured a prolonged period of elevated living costs. The anticipated decline is largely attributed to base effects from last year’s energy price cap increases dropping out of the annual comparison, alongside a moderation in food price inflation.

The Underlying Pressures That Point to a Rebound

Despite the expected short-term improvement, several underlying factors are causing concern among analysts and policymakers at the Bank of England. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is forecast to remain stubbornly high, potentially above 4.0%. Services inflation, a key metric watched closely by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), is also expected to stay elevated due to strong wage growth in the services sector.

Furthermore, recent increases in global oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, are beginning to feed through to petrol and transportation costs. The upcoming rise in the Ofgem energy price cap in July is also expected to add a significant upward jolt to headline inflation figures in the third quarter. These factors collectively suggest that the disinflation process in the UK is likely to be bumpy and protracted.

Implications for the Bank of England and Interest Rates

The trajectory of inflation is critical for the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions. While the expected easing in April might fuel speculation about a potential rate cut later in the summer, the persistent strength of services inflation and wage growth is likely to keep the MPC cautious. Markets are currently pricing in a first rate cut in August or September, but this is highly dependent on the data flow over the coming months. A premature easing of policy could risk re-igniting inflationary pressures, while keeping rates too high for too long could stifle economic growth.

Conclusion

The April UK CPI release is set to deliver a welcome, albeit potentially misleading, signal of cooling inflation. The real story lies in the composition of the data and the forward-looking indicators. For consumers and investors, the key takeaway is that the battle against inflation is far from over, and the path back to the Bank of England’s 2% target will likely involve further volatility and sustained higher borrowing costs.

FAQs

Q1: When will the UK CPI data for April be released?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is scheduled to publish the April CPI figures on Wednesday, May 22, 2024, at 7:00 AM BST.

Q2: Why might inflation fall in April but rise again later?
The April fall is partly due to ‘base effects’ from last year’s high energy prices dropping out of the calculation. Later in the year, factors like the July energy price cap increase, rising oil prices, and persistent services inflation are expected to push the headline rate higher again.

Q3: How does the CPI data affect my mortgage or savings?
The CPI data directly influences the Bank of England’s base interest rate decisions. If inflation remains high, the Bank is more likely to hold rates steady or raise them, which can increase mortgage costs but improve savings rates. If inflation falls significantly, rate cuts become more likely, potentially lowering mortgage payments but reducing savings returns.