UK Economy: Services-Led Growth Faces Persistent Price Pressures, Nomura Warns

Nomura has highlighted that the United Kingdom’s economy is experiencing services-led growth, but persistent price risks remain a concern for the Bank of England’s policy outlook. The analysis, released on March 19, 2025, points to robust activity in the services sector as a key driver of GDP expansion, yet underlying inflation pressures continue to pose challenges for policymakers.

Services Sector Driving UK Growth

According to Nomura’s latest research note, the UK’s services sector has been the primary contributor to recent economic growth, offsetting weakness in manufacturing and construction. The firm notes that consumer spending on services such as hospitality, travel, and financial services has remained resilient, supported by real wage gains and a stable labor market. This trend aligns with official data from the Office for National Statistics, which showed the services sector expanded by 0.4% in January 2025, the fastest pace in six months.

Price Risks Persist Amidst Growth

Despite the positive growth narrative, Nomura warns that price pressures in the services sector are not abating as quickly as hoped. Services inflation, a key metric for the Bank of England, remains elevated at around 5.2% as of February 2025, well above the 2% target. The firm attributes this to strong wage growth in labor-intensive services industries and the pass-through of higher energy costs. These factors could delay the BoE’s path to rate cuts, with markets currently pricing in only two 25 basis point reductions by the end of 2025.

Implications for Monetary Policy

The persistence of services price pressures suggests that the Bank of England may need to maintain a restrictive stance for longer than previously anticipated. Nomura’s economists argue that while the overall inflation rate has fallen to 3.0% (as of February 2025), the underlying services component remains sticky. This could prompt the BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 4.5% through the summer, with any easing dependent on clearer evidence of wage moderation and services price disinflation.

Conclusion

In summary, the UK economy is showing resilience through services-led growth, but the accompanying price risks are complicating the monetary policy landscape. Nomura’s analysis underscores the delicate balance the Bank of England must strike between supporting growth and curbing inflation. For businesses and consumers, this means borrowing costs are likely to stay higher for longer, with implications for investment and spending decisions throughout 2025.

FAQs

Q1: What is the current state of UK services sector growth?
As of early 2025, the UK services sector is the main driver of economic growth, expanding by 0.4% in January 2025, according to the ONS. This is supported by resilient consumer spending on services like hospitality and travel.

Q2: Why are price risks still a concern for the Bank of England?
Services inflation remains elevated at around 5.2% as of February 2025, well above the 2% target. Strong wage growth and energy cost pass-through are keeping price pressures alive, potentially delaying rate cuts.

Q3: How might this affect UK interest rates?
Nomura suggests the Bank of England may hold the Bank Rate at 4.5% through the summer, with only two 25 basis point cuts expected by end of 2025, as policymakers wait for clearer signs of services price moderation.