The US dollar’s worldwide dominance is apparently diminishing at an exponential rate, with countries stepping away after seeing how the US utilized the USD to impose sanctions on Russia.
According to a recent Bloomberg report by Stephen Jen and Joana Freire of asset management firm Eurizon SLJ Capital, the US dollar’s market share in global reserves will fall by ten times its average rate over the next 20 years in 2022.
Taking into account exchange rate fluctuations, the dollar has lost around 11% of its market share since 2016 and twice that much since 2008. According to Jen and Freire in an investor note, countries in Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands, together known as the Global South, are selling off their dollar reserves in order to avoid Russia’s fate.
“The dollar’s market share as a reserve currency fell dramatically in 2022, owing presumably to its zealous use of sanctions.” The extraordinary efforts taken by the United States and its allies against Russia have surprised significant reserve-holding countries.”
According to Jen and Freire, the dollar today accounts for 58% of global reserves, down from 73% over two decades ago when it was regarded as the “indisputable hegemonic reserve.”
Despite the fact that the dollar’s dominance looks to be waning, Jen and Freire argue that the USD’s status as the world’s reserve currency is unlikely to change in the near future since emerging economies continue to rely on the greenback to settle international trading.
However, the duo warns that developing countries’ reliance on the US dollar is not “predetermined,” and that other countries may join the trend of de-dollarization.The prevalent view of the US dollar as a reserve currency as ‘nothing-to-see-here’ appears too harmless and complacent. Investors should recognize that, while the Global South cannot completely stop using the dollar, most of it has already become unwilling to do so.”
