Bitcoin is currently trading for more than $28,000 per coin, with a year-to-date gain of about 78%. This could be only a taste of what’s to come, which could end up being the largest crypto rally in several years, even surpassing the performance of the 2020 bull run.
Here’s what Elliott Wave Principle rules and guidelines might be informing the market about BTC’s market cycle.
Bitcoin’s price fluctuates between extreme excessive excitement and fear. The top cryptocurrency experiences record-breaking rallies during uptrends. In a decline, up to 80% or more of the upside is erased. But, this is simply the result of natural market cycles.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, each cycle contains a sequence of five waves that move in the direction of the dominant trend. These waves appear in variable degrees across all timeframes, showing financial markets’ fractal character. Elliott Wave, as a “principle,” adheres to particular principles, rules, numbers, and features.
Motive waves, for example, move in fives with the trend, whereas each correction forms in threes against the trend. As a result, there are five waves with three steps up and two steps down in between. Even-numbered waves go with the dominant trend, while odd-numbered waves move against it. Individual corrections can feel like corrections of a bigger wave degree if they are forceful enough.
According to one Elliott Wave rule, wave four cannot enter the price region of wave one. With wave one peaking at $13,800 per BTC, an invalidation line could be drawn somewhat higher. Bitcoin fell near $15,000 at the bottom of the latest correction, but never into wave one’s path. This statistic alone may imply that Bitcoin is preparing for its fifth and last wave of this cycle.
According to further Elliott Wave principles, corrections should be sharp and sideways, as well as short or long. Wave two destroyed almost all of wave one’s surge, which is typical of the corrective wave. Wave twos are also zigzags, which is exactly what the crypto market got.
Wave three cannot be the shortest, hence the rally in 2020 and 2021 should be significantly longer than wave one. Wave four adjustments are typically shaped as a triangle or a flat. At the wave four placement, Bitcoin price formed an enlarged flat correction. This is especially perplexing because wave four’s A-wave culminates in a higher peak before slicing through all support in a nasty C-wave.
What remains is wave five in the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. And now is when things become interesting. According to Elliott Wave, wave threes in the stock market are the longest and strongest, while wave fives in commodities are the most powerful. With BTC being regarded as a commodity by the SEC and CFTC, may Bitcoin be poised for its largest rally in years?
In the grand scheme of things, Bitcoin could be in the final wave five of a broader five-wave cycle. This could indicate that BTC has more strength than ever before for one last grand finale before a far more painful bear market.
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