Bitcoin Bullish Divergence Emerges on Weekly Chart, Echoing Post-FTX Rally Pattern

Bitcoin is flashing a technical signal on its weekly chart that traders last saw during the aftermath of the FTX collapse in November 2022, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting and a potential price rebound could be on the horizon.

What the Chart Is Showing

According to technical analysis, Bitcoin’s price recently dropped from around $75,770 to approximately $63,000. During this decline, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements — formed a higher low. The RSI rebounded from below the oversold threshold of 30 to its current level of 34. This divergence, where price makes a lower low but the RSI makes a higher low, is widely interpreted by analysts as a sign that bearish momentum is weakening.

Historical Precedent: The FTX Collapse Signal

This is only the second time such a bullish divergence has appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. The first instance occurred immediately after the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022, a period of extreme market fear and volatility. Following that signal, Bitcoin embarked on a historic rally, climbing from roughly $15,500 to around $126,200 — a gain of approximately 715% over the subsequent months. While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, the recurrence of this pattern provides a data point for traders monitoring market structure.

What This Means for Traders and Investors

The current divergence does not guarantee an immediate price reversal, but it does suggest that the aggressive sell-off may be losing steam. From a technical perspective, the first major price target for Bitcoin in this scenario is around $91,755, which aligns with the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). This level represents a key resistance zone that could act as an initial hurdle if buying pressure returns. Investors should also consider broader macroeconomic factors, including regulatory developments, interest rate expectations, and overall market liquidity, which can influence Bitcoin’s trajectory beyond technical signals alone.

Context and Limitations

Technical analysis is one tool among many, and divergences can sometimes fail or persist for extended periods before a trend change materializes. The RSI is a lagging indicator, and its signals are most reliable when confirmed by other metrics such as volume, on-chain data, or broader market sentiment. The current market environment differs from late 2022 in several key ways: institutional adoption has grown, the regulatory landscape has shifted, and the macroeconomic backdrop is different. Readers should treat this signal as a point of interest rather than a definitive forecast.

Conclusion

The appearance of a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, mirroring the pattern seen after the FTX crisis, offers a cautiously optimistic technical perspective for the cryptocurrency. While the signal does not predict a specific outcome, it highlights a potential shift in market momentum that traders and long-term holders may want to monitor. As always, sound risk management and a diversified approach remain essential in navigating the volatility of digital asset markets.

FAQs

Q1: What is a bullish divergence in technical analysis?
A bullish divergence occurs when an asset’s price makes a lower low, but a momentum indicator like the RSI makes a higher low. This suggests that selling pressure is weakening and a potential upward reversal may be ahead.

Q2: How reliable is the RSI divergence signal on Bitcoin’s weekly chart?
The weekly RSI divergence is a relatively rare signal that has historically preceded significant price moves, as seen after the FTX collapse. However, it is not infallible and should be used alongside other analysis tools and market context.

Q3: What is the significance of the $91,755 price target?
The $91,755 level corresponds to Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a commonly watched technical resistance point. If Bitcoin’s price rallies, this level may act as an initial area of selling pressure or profit-taking.