EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Pair Stays Below 0.8550 as Bullish Momentum Falters

The EUR/GBP currency pair continues to trade below the 0.8550 resistance level, with recent attempts at a bullish breakout failing to gain traction. The pair remains under pressure as market participants weigh diverging monetary policy paths between the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Technical Stuck Below Key Resistance

From a technical perspective, the 0.8550 level has acted as a formidable ceiling for the euro against sterling. The pair has repeatedly tested this zone over the past several trading sessions but has been unable to close decisively above it. The failure to sustain gains above 0.8550 suggests that sellers remain active at higher levels, capping any upside momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has drifted lower, reflecting waning bullish energy. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average continues to slope downward, reinforcing the broader bearish trend that has been in place since late 2024. A sustained move below the 0.8480 support level could open the door for a test of the 0.8400 psychological mark.

Policy Divergence Weighs on Euro

The fundamental backdrop continues to favor the British pound over the euro. The Bank of England has maintained a more cautious stance on rate cuts compared to the ECB, which has signaled a willingness to ease policy further to support a sluggish eurozone economy. This policy divergence has kept the euro on the defensive.

Recent eurozone economic data, including weaker-than-expected industrial production figures and persistent softness in the services sector, have reinforced expectations of additional ECB rate reductions in the coming months. In contrast, UK inflation remains stickier, limiting the BoE’s ability to cut rates aggressively.

What This Means for Traders

For forex traders, the EUR/GBP pair is at a critical juncture. The inability to break above 0.8550 despite several attempts suggests that the path of least resistance remains lower. A break below 0.8480 would likely accelerate selling pressure, while a sustained move above 0.8550 would invalidate the bearish outlook and signal a potential trend reversal.

Traders should monitor upcoming ECB and BoE policy meetings for fresh catalysts. Any hawkish surprise from the ECB or dovish shift from the BoE could shift the balance, but for now, the fundamental and technical pictures align against the euro.

Conclusion

The EUR/GBP pair remains trapped below the 0.8550 resistance level, with bullish attempts failing to gain meaningful traction. Diverging monetary policy expectations between the ECB and BoE continue to weigh on the euro, while technical indicators point to further downside risk. A break below 0.8480 would confirm the bearish bias, while a move above 0.8550 would require a significant shift in the fundamental outlook.

FAQs

Q1: Why is the EUR/GBP pair struggling to break above 0.8550?
The 0.8550 level has acted as strong technical resistance, reinforced by fundamental factors including the ECB’s more dovish policy stance compared to the Bank of England. Repeated failed attempts to close above this level have kept sellers in control.

Q2: What is the next key support level for EUR/GBP?
The immediate support level is at 0.8480. A break below this level could open the door for a move toward the 0.8400 psychological mark, which represents the next major support zone.

Q3: How do ECB and BoE policy expectations affect EUR/GBP?
The Bank of England is expected to cut rates more slowly than the ECB due to stickier UK inflation, which supports the pound. The ECB’s more aggressive easing outlook weakens the euro, creating a policy divergence that favors sterling over the euro.