At various points in 2022, some analysts expressed their belief that Bitcoin [BTC] would reach rock bottom. And, on other occasions, the king coin disagreed with the analysts, despite the fact that some problems, like as the FTX crash, played a Fast forward to 2023. Some of those predictions may have been incorrect, since Bitcoin has only performed better. According to CryptoQuant analyst BaroVirtual, the state of the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands was critical to the new year’s gains.
The UTXO Age Bands characterize the behavior of both short and long-term holders in light of the macro shift in power between both groups. According to the expert, there was a bearish crossover between the age bands of 6 million to 12 million and 12 million to 18 million. Before the press time reflection, this corroborated the early bullish signal.
Our interpretation of the data above indicates that new purchasers in the older UTXO age categories have appeared. This has strengthened the case for more long-term HODLing and served to underpin BTC price action.
Nonetheless, BaroVirtual stated that BTC risks taking a bearish stance in the medium run. While he stated that the sell-off may not occur until BTC reaches a price of $30,000 or $33,000, or in extraordinary situations, $37,000 to $40,000 in the region.
The analyst also defended his stance by citing the historical pattern of even bearish years and odd bullish seasons. He stated that he does not expect the probable second rise to be as strong as the first, noting that “Bitcoin lives in 4-year cycles from one halving to the next.” An even year is considered a bear, whereas an odd year is considered a bull. As a result, 2023 is positive, but the cycle’s second uptrend is always weaker than the first; that is, the prior record high is not updated.”
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Gigisulivan, mentioned the Short-Term Holding SOPR in another historical data reference. This statistic monitors coin fluctuations as well as the status of investors who are selling at a loss or profit.
The indicator was at its highest peak since November 2021, according to the expert. The Short-Term Holder SOPR was 1.027 at the time of publication. Because the value was greater than one, it signaled that short-term investors were profitably selling.
Gigisulivan, on the other hand, added that in bear market exits, the metric growth was an indication of a future rally rather than a collapse. He, like BaroVirtual, believes BTC will surge above $30,000.
At the same time, he stated Coinbase’s former CTO’s $1 million 90-day Bitcoin estimate was unattainable. Nonetheless, the conclusion of the FOMC meeting will influence short-term Bitcoin movement.
