According to a CryptoQuant expert, this crossing pattern has occurred several times since 2013. The “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss” (NUPL) is an indicator that shows how much unrealized profit or loss Bitcoin investors currently have.
The term “unrealized” refers to the fact that holders have yet to sell or transfer their coins in order to reap the profit or loss they have accrued. If the investors sold these coins, the identical profit/loss they were bearing would be “realized.”
The NUPL estimates this unrealized profit/loss by deducting the realized cap (a capitalization model for BTC that accounts for the price at which each coin on the chain was bought) from the market cap. The metric then reduces this number by dividing it by the market capitalization.
When the indicator has a positive value, it indicates that the average investor has an unrealized profit, whereas negative values indicate that unrealized losses dominate the market. Clearly, an indication with a value of zero indicates that the holders are currently simply breaking even.
The chart below depicts the trend of the Bitcoin NUPL’s 60-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs).
BTC has had tremendous bullish momentum everytime the 60-day moving average crosses over the 365-day moving average. Nonetheless, there have been some outliers. The quant has marked the relevant trend points for the Bitcoin NUPL’s 60-day and 365-day MAs in the graph above.
The graph illustrates that the last time this type of crossing occurred was in late 2021, when this cycle’s bull run was at its peak. However, the opposite type quickly cancelled this golden crossover, and BTC only saw a bearish effect.
The MAs of the Bitcoin NUPL have just begun to create the bullish crossing configuration once more. This time, at least so far, the breakout appears to be legitimate, as the 60-day has already risen strongly above the 365-day, as opposed to the last occasion, where the former never rose beyond the latter before curving back in and producing the opposite crossover.
