India’s inflation path to stay elevated into FY27, says Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered has projected that India’s inflation trajectory will remain higher into fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), according to a recent research note that included updated charts and forecasts.

What is driving the upward revision?

The bank’s revised outlook reflects persistent food price pressures and sticky core inflation, which are expected to keep the consumer price index (CPI) above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4% for an extended period. The note, released this week, did not specify exact figures but indicated a higher path compared to previous estimates.

Implications for monetary policy

A sustained higher inflation trajectory complicates the RBI’s policy stance. With inflation likely to remain above the target, the central bank may need to maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer, potentially delaying any rate cuts. This could impact borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, as well as overall economic growth.

Why this matters

For investors and businesses, the inflation outlook is a key input for planning and pricing decisions. A prolonged period of above-target inflation erodes purchasing power and can lead to higher input costs. It also influences global capital flows, as foreign investors closely monitor inflation trends and central bank responses in emerging markets like India.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered’s forecast adds to a growing consensus that India’s inflation challenge is not yet over. While the government and RBI have taken measures to cool prices, structural factors such as food supply disruptions and global commodity price volatility remain significant risks. The path ahead calls for careful monitoring and policy agility.

FAQs

Q1: What is the RBI’s inflation target?
The Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term inflation target is 4%, with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side, meaning it aims to keep CPI inflation between 2% and 6%.

Q2: Why does food inflation matter for the overall inflation outlook?
Food items account for nearly half of India’s CPI basket. Therefore, spikes in food prices have a direct and significant impact on headline inflation, making food supply and monsoon outcomes critical factors.

Q3: How might a higher inflation path affect interest rates?
If inflation stays above the target, the RBI is likely to keep interest rates elevated to prevent expectations from becoming unanchored. This means borrowing costs for loans, including home and business loans, could remain high for a longer period.