The price of Litecoin (LTC) has dipped below $100 and is currently trading within a tightening range. The recent lack of volatility in the LTCUSD pair is reminiscent of late 2016 and early 2017, which preceded an astonishing 100x rally.
While past performance cannot guarantee future results, technical analysis seeks out signals and historical patterns to increase the probability of success. One thing that can be guaranteed after a prolonged period of low volatility is that it will eventually end with a breakout into a highly volatile state. Given the inherently volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, this could lead to significant price movements.
Interestingly, the lowest volatility ever observed in Litecoin resulted in a breakout that triggered a 100x rally. Within a year, LTCUSD surged from $3 to over $300. Now, a similar signal has reappeared, suggesting the potential for another major move in Litecoin. However, it is important to note that this signal does not necessarily indicate an upward price movement.
The signal being referred to is the 9-day Bollinger Bands and Bollinger Band Width. The Bollinger Bands, which use a simple moving average and two bands set at two standard deviations, are currently at their second-tightest level in Litecoin’s history. These bands expand during periods of high volatility and contract during periods of low volatility. A low volatility state, known as a squeeze, is typically followed by a significant price move and a surge in volatility. However, volatility only measures the price dispersion over a given time period.
This suggests that when the anticipated large move finally occurs, it could be in either direction. Nevertheless, several other technical indicators support the possibility of price appreciation in the future, leaving an upward move as a viable option. One thing that is certain is that this low volatility state is unlikely to persist for much longer, so it’s time to brace for an interesting and potentially dramatic turn of events.
Additionally, Bollinger Band Width has been contracting with lower highs for a remarkable six years. If this downtrend pattern is broken, it could unleash the largest movement witnessed in half a decade.
In conclusion, Litecoin’s price is currently trapped within a tightening range, reminiscent of a period preceding a significant rally in the past. Technical analysis signals the potential for another major move, although the direction remains uncertain. The return of this signal, coupled with other technical indicators, suggests the likelihood of increased volatility and the possibility of price appreciation. However, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. As the low volatility state nears its end, prepare for a potentially thrilling ride in the world of Litecoin.
